基于组合赋权云模型的溃坝生命损失风险评价
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(1.河海大学水利水电学院;2.武汉大学水利水电学院;3.南方电网储能股份有限公司)

作者简介:

程井(1982—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事水工结构分析及库坝工程数字孪生模型开发研究。E-mail:cj042@126.com

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3005501);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022153);贵州省水利科技经费项目(KT202537,KT202217)


Risk assessment of life loss in dam breach based on combined weighting-cloud model
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(1.Collegeof Water Conservancy & Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University;2.School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University;3.ChinaSouthern Power Grid Energy Storage Co., Ltd. )

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    摘要:

    针对传统溃坝生命损失评估中层次分析法赋权主观性强、生命损失风险时空分布研究不足以及风险指标具有较大模糊性和随机性的问题,提出了一种基于组合赋权-云模型的溃坝生命损失风险评价方法。该方法综合考虑各类影响因素,构建溃坝生命损失评价指标等级划分标准,基于溃坝洪水演进结果构建下游淹没区的单元人口分布模型,综合G1法-熵权法组合赋权方法确定的指标权重及云模型得到的各单元风险隶属度,实现溃坝过程中不同时空单元的风险动态评估,通过计算生命损失值判定水库溃坝的总体生命损失风险等级。实例验证结果表明:G1法-熵权法组合赋权方法融合了洪水演进过程中的数据变化,能有效平衡溃坝生命损失风险评价中相关指标的主客观权重;组合赋权-云模型方法能有效处理风险评估过程中的随机性和模糊性问题,实现溃坝过程的动态风险评估,更符合洪水演进的实际过程,能更准确地反映溃坝初期洪水对受灾群体风险的影响。

    Abstract:

    To address the problems of strong subjectivity in weighting by the analytic hierarchy process and insufficient research on the spatiotemporal distribution of life loss risks in traditional dam breach life loss assessment, as well as the high fuzziness and randomness of risk indicators, a risk assessment method for dam breach life loss based on a combined weighting-cloud model was proposed. This method comprehensively considered various influencing factors, established a grading standard for dam breach life loss assessment indicators, and constructed a unit population distribution model for the downstream flooded area based on dam breach flood routing results. By integrating the indicator weights determined by the combined G1-entropy weight method with the risk membership degree of each unit obtained from the cloud model, dynamic risk assessment of different spatiotemporal units during the dam breach process was achieved. The overall life loss risk level of the reservoir dam breach was determined by calculating the life loss value. The case study results demonstrate that the combined G1-entropy weight method integrates data changes during flood routing and effectively balances the subjective and objective weights of relevant indicators in dam breach life loss risk assessment; the combined weighting-cloud model method can effectively handle the randomness and fuzziness issues in the risk assessment process, achieve dynamic risk assessment of the dam breach process, better conform to the actual flood routing process, and more accurately reflect the impact of the flood on the affected population during the initial stage of the dam breach.

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程井,向思瑶,周伟,等.基于组合赋权云模型的溃坝生命损失风险评价[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(3):78-86.(Cheng Jing, Xiang Siyao, Zhou Wei, et al. Risk assessment of life loss in dam breach based on combined weighting-cloud model[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(3):78-86.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-28
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