基于随机森林算法的台风风场经验参数优化
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作者单位:

(1.河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院;2.河海大学海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室;3.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室)

作者简介:

时健(1987—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事台风浪模拟研究。E-mail:jianshi@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划政府间重点专项项目(2023YFE0126300);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41930538)


Optimization of empirical parameters for typhoon wind field based on random forest algorithm
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Affiliation:

(1.Collegeof Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University;2.KeyLaboratory of Coastal Disaster and Protection, Ministry of Education, Hohai University;3.StateKey Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University )

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    摘要:

    针对Holland台风风场模型计算中最大风速半径和Holland- B 参数难确定、经验依赖性强的问题,结合卫星遥感反演数据机器学习模型数据集,利用随机森林算法对Holland台风风场的最大风速半径以及Holland -B 参数计算方法进行优化,并将优化后参数化台风风场模型风速与实测风速进行了对比验证,比较了算法优化参数值与经验公式计算值的精度差异。结果表明:优化后的两个台风经验参数与验证集数据拟合性较好,平均误差均小于4%,相较传统经验公式预测精度提升约50%;基于随机森林算法可快速、有效获取参数化台风风场模型经验参数,风速模拟误差在7%以内,提高了参数化台风风场模型模拟风速的精确性和稳定性,可为台风数值模拟提供新的技术途径。

    Abstract:

    To address the problems of difficulty in determination and strong experience dependence of the radius of maximum wind speed and Holland- B parameter in the calculation of the Holland typhoon wind field model, the calculation methods of the radius of maximum wind speed and Holland- B parameter of the Holland typhoon wind field were optimized using the random forest algorithm, combined with the dataset of the machine learning model of satellite remote sensing inversion data. Furthermore, the wind speed of the parametric typhoon wind field model with optimized parameters was compared and verified with the measured wind speed, and the accuracy difference between the parameter values optimized by the algorithm and those calculated by empirical formulas was compared. The results indicate that the two optimized empirical parameters of typhoons fit well with the validation set data; the average errors are both less than 4%, and the prediction accuracy increases by about 50% compared with traditional empirical formulas. Based on the random forest algorithm, the empirical parameters of the parametric typhoon wind field model can be obtained quickly and effectively, and the simulated wind speed error is within 7%. This improves the accuracy and stability of the simulated wind speed of the parametric typhoon wind field model and provides a new technical approach for typhoon numerical simulation.

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时健,孙海飞,刘威,等.基于随机森林算法的台风风场经验参数优化[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(3):141-148, 178.(Shi Jian, Sun Haifei, Liu Wei, et al. Optimization of empirical parameters for typhoon wind field based on random forest algorithm[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(3):141-148, 178.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-28
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