南海西北部台风过程风、浪统计特征研究
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(1.中海油研究总院有限责任公司;2.中国海洋大学工程学院;3.中国海洋大学海岸与海洋工程全国重点实验室 )

作者简介:

张琪(1995—),女,工程师,硕士,主要从事油气平台环境条件参数研究。Email:zhangqi52@cnooc.com.cn

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52301344,42406249);海岸与海洋工程全国重点实验室开放基金项目(SL2507)


Study on statistical characteristics of wind and waves during typhoon processes in the northwestern South China Sea
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(1.CNOOCResearch Institute Co., Ltd.;2.College of Engineering, Ocean University of China;3.StateKey Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Ocean University of China )

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    摘要:

    为探究台风过程中风、浪统计特征,基于40年(1979—2018年)波浪后报数据和再分析风速数据,采用轨迹追踪和时间匹配方法提取了南海西北部海域3个研究点台风显著影响期间风速和有效波高数据,分析了风速风向与有效波高波向的联合分布特征以及台风过程中风浪延迟特征,并基于极值理论,提取了每场台风过境期间的最大有效波高和最大风速样本,基于三参数威布尔分布模型和Copula模型计算了50、100、150、200 a单变量重现期和联合重现期下的外推值。结果表明:在研究区域北部台风驱动的超过6.0 m强浪均主要分布在33.75°~123.75°扇区,且研究区域风速和有效波高达到峰值的时间差主要集中在0~20.h;由于考虑了更广泛的风险范围,联合重现期的外推值大于单变量重现期的外推值。

    Abstract:

    To investigate the statistical characteristics of wind and waves during typhoon processes, based on 40-year (1979-2018) hindcast wave data and reanalysis wind speed data, the wind speed and significant wave height data during periods of significant typhoon influence at three study sites in the northwestern South China Sea were extracted using trajectory tracking and time matching methods. The joint distribution characteristics of wind speed and wind direction, as well as significant wave height and wave direction, were analyzed, and the delay characteristics of wind and waves during typhoon processes were examined. Furthermore, based on the extreme value theory, the maximum significant wave height and maximum wind speed samples during each typhoon process were extracted. Based on the three-parameter Weibull distribution model and Copula model, the extrapolated values for 50-year, 100-year, 150-year, and 200-year return periods under univariate and joint return periods were calculated. The results indicate that in the northern part of the study area, strong waves exceeding 6.0 m driven by typhoons are mainly distributed in the 33.75°-123.75° sector, and the time difference between the peak wind speed and peak significant wave height in the study area is mainly concentrated in 0-20 h. Because a broader risk range is considered, the extrapolated values of the joint return periods are greater than those of the univariate return periods.

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张琪,李佳谦,谢波涛,等.南海西北部台风过程风、浪统计特征研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(4):1-9.(Zhang Qi, Li Jiaqian, Xie Botao, et al. Study on statistical characteristics of wind and waves during typhoon processes in the northwestern South China Sea[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(4):1-9.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-20
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