考虑物理约束的多要素洪水模拟LSTM模型
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(1.河海大学水文与水资源学院;2.北京市水文总站;3.安徽省水文局 )

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何畅(2001—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文物理规律模拟及水文预报研究。Email:15110551182@163.com

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国家自然科学基金项目(52079035);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B240203007);安徽省自然科学基金重点项目(2208085US06)


An LSTM model considering physical constraints for multi-factor flood simulation
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(1.Collegeof Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University;2.BeijingHydrological Station;3.AnhuiProvincial Hydrological Bureau )

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    摘要:

    针对用数据驱动模型替代传统水动力模型实现快速预报时存在模拟结果单一与缺乏可解释性的问题,基于多任务学习框架,构建了一种用于多要素联合模拟的LSTM模型,并将要素间的拟合物理关系作为约束项加入损失函数;结合随机森林、斯皮尔曼秩相关系数法与PCA主成分分析法的特征综合评价结果,进一步探讨了模型可解释性的问题。基于二维水动力数值模型对屯溪区17场洪水过程模拟结果的数据库,分别训练考虑物理约束前后的LSTM模型,结果表明:考虑物理约束后LSTM模型运算速度并未显著降低,能够在1.s内实现多要素的模拟;对于多场洪水的整体模拟,考虑物理约束的LSTM模型效果更优,水位、流量、流速和淹没面积的模拟精度分别提升了20.38%、17.03%、4.02%、14.07%;考虑物理约束的LSTM模型对小洪水的捕捉能力更强;对常规洪水的模拟精度较高,但在极端复杂情况下性能仍需提升。

    Abstract:

    In response to the issues of single simulation results and lack of interpretability when using data-driven models to replace traditional hydrodynamic models for rapid forecasting, an LSTM model for joint simulation of multiple factors was constructed based on a multi-task learning framework, and the fitted physical relationships among factors were incorporated into the loss function as constraint terms. Furthermore, the interpretability of the model was explored by combining the comprehensive feature evaluation results of random forest, Spearman rank correlation coefficient method, and principal component analysis (PCA). Based on a database of simulation results of 17 flood events in Tunxi District by a two-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical model, the LSTM models with and without physical constraints were trained, respectively. The results indicate that the computational speed of the LSTM model with physical constraints does not decrease significantly, which can realize multi-factor simulation within 1.s. For the overall simulation of multiple flood events, the LSTM model with physical constraints performs better, and the simulation accuracies of water level, discharge, flow velocity, and inundation area are improved by 20.38%, 17.03%, 4.02%, and 14.07%, respectively. The LSTM model with physical constraints demonstrates a stronger capability in capturing small floods and higher accuracy in simulating regular floods, but its performance still needs to be improved under extremely complex conditions.

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何畅,李致家,牛颢然,等.考虑物理约束的多要素洪水模拟LSTM模型[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(4):78-87.(He Chang, Li Zhijia, Niu Haoran, et al. An LSTM model considering physical constraints for multi-factor flood simulation[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(4):78-87.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-20
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