多元型复合灾害系统适应性评估
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(1.河海大学公共管理学院;2.河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院 )

作者简介:

黄莉(1982—),女,副教授,博士,主要从事水灾害应急管理研究。Email:lily8214@126.com

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001002);国家自然科学基金项目(71974052)


Adaptive evaluation of multivariate compound disaster systems
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(1.Collegeof Public Administration, Hohai University;2.Collegeof Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University )

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    摘要:

    考虑灾害损失的叠加(折减)效应,推导了多元型复合灾害系统的适应性指数公式,从防灾能力、应灾能力两大维度构建了多元型复合灾害系统适应性评估指标体系,并使用熵权-TOPSIS方法评估了各区域的适应性,利用ArcGIS软件绘制了适应性区划图。粤港澳大湾区的实例应用结果表明:粤港澳大湾区“暴雨-滑坡、暴雨-崩塌”多元型复合灾害系统适应性高的区域主要集中在南部地区,较高适应性区域主要为中部少数地区,中、较低适应性区主要分布在中部大部分地区、西南部和东部地区,低适应性区域主要分布在西北部和东北部;在面对多元型复合灾害系统时,区域的适应性指数显著低于其面对单一灾害的适应性指数。

    Abstract:

    By considering the superposition (reduction) effect of disaster losses, an adaptive index formula for multivariate compound disaster systems was derived, and an adaptive evaluation index system for multivariate compound disaster systems was constructed from the two major dimensions of disaster prevention capacity and disaster response capacity. The entropy weight-TOPSIS method is used to evaluate adaptability of each region, and ArcGIS software is utilized to map the adaptability zoning. The application results of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area case show that for the “rainstorm-landslide” and “rainstorm-collapse” multivariate compound disaster systems in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the regions with high adaptability are mainly concentrated in the southern area; the regions with relatively high adaptability are mainly a few areas in the central part; the regions with medium and relatively low adaptability are mainly distributed in most areas of the central part and the southwestern and eastern areas; the regions with low adaptability are mainly located in the northwestern and northeastern areas, respectively. When facing multivariate compound disaster systems, the regional adaptive index is significantly lower than that for single disasters.

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黄莉,张祎喆,万旭哲,等.多元型复合灾害系统适应性评估[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(4):88-95.(Huang Li, Zhang Yizhe, Wan Xuzhe, et al. Adaptive evaluation of multivariate compound disaster systems[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(4):88-95.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-20
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