基于云物元分析的水光互补容量配置方案评价
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(1.河海大学水利水电学院;2.中国电建集团贵阳勘测设计研究院有限公司;3.华能澜沧江水电股份有限公司 )

作者简介:

郭晓茜(2003—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事多能互补系统容量配置研究。Email:stream0403@163.com

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52179012);中国华能集团有限公司总部科技项目(HNKJ20-H20);中核集团科技项目(XJYH-2024-DL-QT011)


Evaluation of hydro-photovoltaic complementary capacity allocation schemes based on cloud matter-element analysis
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(1.Collegeof Water Conservancy & Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University;2.POWERCHINA Guiyang Engineering Corporation Limited;3.HuanengLancang River Hydropower Inc. )

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    摘要:

    针对水光互补系统容量配置方案的多属性、多等级、不确定性评价问题,构建了涵盖安全性、环保性、经济性、技术性及社会性5个因素层的3级评价指标体系,提出了基于组合赋权与云物元分析法的综合评价模型。该模型通过AHP-云模型修正确定主观权重,引入改进熵权法获取客观权重,基于欧氏距离实现权重融合,并运用云物元理论计算方案的各评价等级隶属度与综合评分,将等级边界从刚性阈值拓展为柔性分布,从而更合理地刻画评价过程中的随机波动与模糊过渡。澜沧江西藏段清洁能源基地实例验证结果表明:该模型在多种容量配置方案的比选中表现出良好的区分效果,评价结果与工程运行特征吻合,能够有效协调多维度指标间的冲突;综合评价模型兼顾了权重确定的全面性与等级判定的稳健性,可为清洁能源基地容量配置提供科学、可靠的决策支持。

    Abstract:

    To address the multi-attribute, multi-level, and uncertain evaluation problem of capacity allocation schemes for hydro-photovoltaic complementary systems, a three-level evaluation index system covering five factor layers of security, environmental protection, economy, technicality, and sociality was constructed, and a comprehensive evaluation model based on combined weighting and cloud matter-element analysis method was proposed. In this model, subjective weights were determined through correction by the AHP-cloud model; objective weights were obtained by introducing the improved entropy weight method; weight fusion was realized based on Euclidean distance. Moreover, the cloud matter-element theory was applied to calculate the membership degrees of each scheme to evaluation grades and the comprehensive scores, expanding the grade boundaries from rigid thresholds to flexible distributions, thereby more reasonably depicting the random fluctuations and fuzzy transitions in the evaluation process. The results of the case verification for the clean energy base in the Xizang section of the Lancang River indicate that the model exhibits a good differentiation effect in the comparison and selection of multiple capacity allocation schemes. The evaluation results are consistent with the engineering operation characteristics, and the conflicts among multi-dimensional indicators can be effectively coordinated. The comprehensive evaluation model considers both the comprehensiveness of weight determination and the robustness of grade judgment, and it can provide scientific and reliable decision support for the capacity allocation of clean energy bases.

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郭晓茜,黄显峰,吴迪,等.基于云物元分析的水光互补容量配置方案评价[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(4):106-115.(Guo Xiaoxi, Huang Xianfeng, Wu Di, et al. Evaluation of hydro-photovoltaic complementary capacity allocation schemes based on cloud matter-element analysis[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(4):106-115.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-20
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