基于pySTEPS的登陆热带气旋降雨短临预报分析
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作者单位:

(1.三峡大学数理学院;2.长江科学院水利部岩土力学与工程重点实验室;3.三峡大学土木与建筑学院 )

作者简介:

周艳平(1980—),女,副教授,博士,主要从事流体力学研究。E-mail:qybie@126.com

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中图分类号:

P339

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(11901346);长江科学院水利部岩土力学与工程重点实验室开放基金项目(CKWV20221019/KY)


Analysis of rainfall nowcasting for landfalling tropical cyclones using pySTEPS
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Mathematics and Physics, China Three Gorges University;2.Key Laboratory of Geotechnical Mechanics and Engineering of the Ministry of Water Resources, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute;3.College of Civil Engineering & Architecture, China Three Gorges University )

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    摘要:

    以2017年飓风哈维降雨事件为案例,评估了3种短临预报模型(S-PROG、Extrapolation、ANVIL)对热带气旋引发极端降雨的预测能力。结果表明:ANVIL模型在降雨空间分布模拟方面表现最优,但对强降雨强度存在系统性高估;S-PROG模型对降雨强度变化趋势存在滞后;Extrapolation模型在短期(0~2.h )预报中稳定性最高,能够准确捕捉降雨强度峰值及时间演变;高分辨率气象数据与多源数据融合可显著提升模型性能,雷达外推技术与深度学习算法结合展现出较大潜力。

    Abstract:

    The predictive capabilities of three nowcasting models (S-PROG, Extrapolation, and ANVIL) for extreme rainfall induced by tropical cyclones were evaluated using the 2017 Hurricane Harvey rainfall event as a case study. The results indicate that the ANVIL model shows the best performance in simulating the spatial distribution of rainfall, but systematically overestimates heavy rainfall intensity; the S-PROG model shows a lag in tracking rainfall intensity variations; and the Extrapolation model achieves the highest stability in short-term (0-2 h) nowcasting, accurately capturing the peak rainfall intensity and its temporal evolution. The fusion of high-resolution meteorological data and multi-source data can significantly enhance model performance, and the combination of radar extrapolation techniques and deep learning algorithms shows great potential.

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引用本文

周艳平,黄一,杨建.基于pySTEPS的登陆热带气旋降雨短临预报分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(5):1-9.(Zhou Yanping, Huang Yi, Yang Jian. Analysis of rainfall nowcasting for landfalling tropical cyclones using pySTEPS[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(5):1-9.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-09
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