图神经网络对地下水位预测的不同物理机制融合方案比较
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(河海大学水文与水资源学院 )

作者简介:

刘波(1980—),女,副教授,博士,主要从事地下水系统模拟与预报研究。E-mail:liubohhu@hhu.edu.cn

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TP183;P641.7

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国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3211600) 引用本文


Comparison of different physical mechanism fusion schemes for groundwater level prediction by graph neural networks
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(College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University )

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    摘要:

    为揭示不同物理机制融合方案对图神经网络(GNN)地下水位预测精度的影响,基于鄱阳湖流域114个监测站的逐日地下水位数据,综合考虑地下水位空间相关性、地表水-地下水关联属性及降雨滞时效应等物理因素,设计了6种物理机制融合方案的图卷积神经网络(GCN)结构,并对比分析了6种方案的地下水位预测精度。鄱阳湖流域实例验证结果表明:GCN在预测地下水位动态变化时展现了出色的总体模拟能力和精度,各方案 R 2均超过0.9;融合提前1月降雨与地表水-地下水关联属性的方案精度最高(MAE为0.060 1 m),较单距离邻接矩阵方案提升约6.8%;考虑降雨滞时可增强地下水位对降雨滞后响应的刻画,关联属性矩阵对潜水井水位预测结果的RMSE提升效果优于承压水井。

    Abstract:

    To reveal the influence of different physical mechanism fusion schemes on the groundwater level prediction accuracy of graph neural network (GCN), six graph convolutional network (GCN) structures with different physical mechanism fusion schemes were designed based on the daily groundwater level data from 114 monitoring stations in the Poyang Lake Basin by comprehensively considering the physical factors such as spatial correlation of groundwater levels, surface water-groundwater connectivity, and rainfall lag effect. The groundwater level prediction accuracies of the six schemes were compared. The results from the Poyang Lake Basin case validation show that the GCN demonstrated excellent overall simulation capability and accuracy when predicting the dynamic changes of groundwater levels; the R 2 of all schemes exceeds 0.9. The scheme fusing one-month-ahead rainfall and surface water-groundwater connectivity attributes achieves the highest accuracy (with an MAE of 0.060 1 m), improving the accuracy by about 6.8% compared with the single distance matrix scheme. Taking rainfall lag into account characterizes better the delayed response of groundwater levels to rainfall; moreover, the connectivity attribute matrix yields better RMSE improvements for phreatic well water-level predictions than for confined wells.

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刘波,王佳宝,李志勇,等.图神经网络对地下水位预测的不同物理机制融合方案比较[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(5):10-17, 28.(Liu Bo, Wang Jiabao, Li Zhiyong, et al. Comparison of different physical mechanism fusion schemes for groundwater level prediction by graph neural networks[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(5):10-17, 28.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-09
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