融合机器学习与贝叶斯模型平均的水电站来水预测方法
作者:
作者单位:

(1.云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院;2.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室;3.河海大学水文水资源学院;4.水利部水文仪器及岩土工程仪器质量监督检验测试中心;5.水利部南京水利水文自动化研究所;6.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院;7.中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室; 8.水利部水利大数据重点实验室 )

作者简介:

陈凯(1990—),男,工程师,博士,主要从事电力电量平衡技术和水电优化调度研究。E-mail:chenkai09@yn.csg.cn

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中图分类号:

P338+.2

基金项目:

中国南方电网云南电网有限责任公司科技项目(YNKJXM20222329);国家重点研发计划项目 (2023YFC3006500)


Inflow forecasting method for hydropower stations by integrating machine learning and Bayesian model averaging
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Electric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd.;2.State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University;3.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University;4.MWR Inspecting and Testing Centre for Hydrological & Geotechnical Instruments’ Quality;5.Nanjing Research Institute of Hydrology and Water Conservation Automation, Ministry of Water Resources;6.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University;7.Key Laboratory of Hydro-Meteorology China Meteorological Administration; 8.Key Laboratory of Water Big Data Technology of Ministry of Water Resources )

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    摘要:

    针对水文模型在复杂环境条件下易出现建模不充分或未建模行为导致的模拟偏差问题,提出了一种融合机器学习与贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)的水电站来水预测方法。该融合方法以Hydromad模型为基础计算来水及其残差序列,利用随机森林(RF)模型、XGBoost模型和支持向量回归(SVR)模型捕捉残差的非线性特征,并通过BMA融合多模型预测结果,实现模拟误差后处理修正与不确定性评估。金沙江梨园水电站实例分析结果表明,提出的方法可以显著提升Hydromad模型在洪峰响应和涨、退水阶段的拟合精度,修正后来水预测的NSE、KGE等指标显著提升,水量偏差得到有效控制,整体预测精度明显改善,可为水电站来水预测及调度决策提供更科学的技术支撑。

    Abstract:

    To address the issue of simulation bias in hydrological models caused by insufficient modeling or unmodeled behaviors under complex environmental conditions, an inflow forecasting method for hydropower stations based on machine learning and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was proposed. Based on the Hydromad model, the inflow and residual sequences were calculated; three machine learning models, namely random forest (RF) model, XGBoost model, and support vector regression (SVR) model, were used to capture the nonlinear characteristics of the residuals. Subsequently, the multi-model prediction results were fused via BMA to achieve post-processing error correction and uncertainty assessment of the simulation errors. The case study results of Liyuan Hydropower Station on Jinsha River indicate that the proposed method can significantly improve the fitting accuracy of the Hydromad model in peak flood responses and the rising and falling water stages. After correction, indicators of inflow prediction such as NSE and KGE are significantly improved; the water volume bias is effectively controlled; the overall prediction accuracy is obviously improved. This method can provide more scientific technical support for inflow forecasting and operational decision-making of hydropower stations.

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陈凯,罗煜宁,张珂,等.融合机器学习与贝叶斯模型平均的水电站来水预测方法[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(5):91-98.(Chen Kai, Luo Yuning, Zhang Ke, et al. Inflow forecasting method for hydropower stations by integrating machine learning and Bayesian model averaging[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(5):91-98.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-09
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