干散货港区PM2.5浓度多变量混合预测模型
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作者单位:

(1.河海大学港航物流与绿色发展研究所;2.中交水运规划设计院有限公司 )

作者简介:

陶凯旋(2002—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事港航运筹与优化算法研究。E-mail:tkx@hhu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

X736.1

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB2600203)


Multivariate hybrid prediction model for PM2.5 concentration in dry bulk ports
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Institute of Maritime Logistics and Green Development, Hohai University;2.CCCC Water Transportation Consultants Co., Ltd. )

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    摘要:

    为实现干散货港区PM2.5浓度的精准预测与有效管控,提出了一种融合XGBoost特征筛选与粒子群算法(PSO)智能优化的支持向量回归(SVR)多变量混合预测模型(XGBoost-PSO-SVR模型)。该模型充分考虑了港口PM2.5形成机制与气象条件下扩散过程的差异,通过XGBoost量化关键影响因子,并利用PSO优化后的SVR进行精准预测。长江南京段典型港区的实例验证结果表明,XGBoost-PSO-SVR模型在高浓度区间具有较强的鲁棒性,与单变量STL-ARIMA-SVR模型相比,其平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分比误差和均方根误差分别降低15.6%、14.3%和24.9%;与传统多变量SVR模型相比,分别降低52.5%、57.1%和37.7%;XGBoost-PSO-SVR模型具有较好的预测性能,可为干散货港区智慧化抑尘提供决策支撑。

    Abstract:

    To achieve accurate prediction and effective control of PM2.5 concentration in dry bulk port areas, a multivariate hybrid prediction model based on support vector regression (SVR) integrating XGBoost feature selection and particle swarm optimization (PSO) intelligent optimization was proposed, namely XGBoost-PSO-SVR model. The differences in PM2.5 formation mechanisms and diffusion processes under meteorological conditions in ports were fully considered by the model. XGBoost was employed to quantify the key influencing factors, and the SVR optimized by PSO was utilized for accurate prediction. The case verification results of typical port areas in the Nanjing section of the Yangtze River show that the XGBoost-PSO-SVR model has strong robustness in the high-concentration range; compared with the univariate STL-ARIMA-SVR model, its MAE, MAPE, and RMSE decrease by 15.6%, 14.3%, and 24.9%, respectively; compared with the conventional multivariate SVR model, they decrease by 52.5%, 57.1%, and 37.7%, respectively. The XGBoost-PSO-SVR model has good prediction performance and can provide decision support for intelligent dust suppression in dry bulk port areas.

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陶凯旋,封学军,季皆名,等.干散货港区PM2.5浓度多变量混合预测模型[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(5):164-172.(Tao Kaixuan, Feng Xuejun, Ji Jieming, et al. Multivariate hybrid prediction model for PM2.5 concentration in dry bulk ports[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2026,54(5):164-172.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-09
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