新安江模型和支持向量机模型实时洪水预报应用比较
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P338

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国家自然科学基金(41130639,51179045);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501022)


Comparison of Xin’anjiang model and Support Vector Machine model in the application of real-time flood forecasting
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    摘要:

    选择新安江模型和支持向量机模型分别在浙江省、陕西省的4个流域进行实时洪水预报,并使用K-最近邻实时校正法对新安江模型预报结果实时校正,比较2种模型在不同流域的应用效果,其中选择确定性系数、峰现时间误差、洪峰相对误差和均方误差作为模型预报评价指标。进一步改变预报预见期并分析2种模型在不同预见期内的预报精度。研究结果表明,新安江模型和支持向量机模型在不同流域洪水预报中各有优势,支持向量机模型预报精度受降雨精度影响较大。当预报预见期较长时,新安江模型预报结果更好;随着预见期缩短,支持向量机模型预报精度显著提高,在短预见期实时预报中支持向量机模型优势更明显。在预报难度较大的半湿润半干旱流域,新安江模型和支持向量机模型在率定期和实时预报过程中均具有较高精度。

    Abstract:

    The Xin’anjiang model and Support Vector Machine(SVM)model were applied to the real-time flood forecasting of 4 basins in Zhejiang Province and Shaanxi Province. The K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm was used to correct the results of Xin’anjiang model. The forecasting results of different basins with two models were compared and analyzed by the evaluation indices of certainty coefficient, flood peak time error, flood peak relative error and mean square error. Further study was made to analyze the forecasting accuracy of two models in different forecast periods. The results show that Xin’anjiang model and Support Vector Machine model have their own advantages in the real-time flood forecasting of different basins. The accuracy of Support Vector Machine model is more susceptible to the accuracy of precipitation forecasting. Xin’anjiang model performs better in the case of long forecast period. With the forecast period reduced, the accuracy of Support Vector Machine was obviously improved. Meanwhile, Support Vector Machine model has a higher forecasting accuracy in the short forecast period. However, in semi-humid and semi-arid basins where the flood forecasting is difficult, the Xin’anjiang model and Support Vector Machine model have high accuracy in both calibration periods and real-time forecasting processes.

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霍文博,朱跃龙,李致家,等.新安江模型和支持向量机模型实时洪水预报应用比较[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2018,46(4):283-289.(HUO Wenbo, ZHU Yuelong, LI Zhijia, et al. Comparison of Xin’anjiang model and Support Vector Machine model in the application of real-time flood forecasting[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2018,46(4):283-289.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-07-09
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