基于天气预报的参考作物腾发量预报方法比较
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S161.4

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国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0403202);江苏水利科技项目(2016068);2016年度江苏省普通高校学术学位研究生科研创新计划(KYZZ16_0290)


Comparison of three reference crop evapotranspiration forecasting methods based on weather forecast data
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    摘要:

    以常州站点为例,收集了2000—2017年历史气象观测数据和2011—2015年历史天气预报数据,以FAO56-PM公式的估算结果为对照,分别对Hargreaves-Samani模型、多元回归模型与傅立叶分析模型进行率定和验证,并以2016-04-21至2017-10-24逐日1~7 d天气预报数据为依据,分析评价3种率定模型的ET0预报精度。结果表明:率定后的MR模型在1 d、4 d、7 d预见期的平均绝对误差为0.751 mm/d,准确率为87.2%,预报精度均优于HAR模型与FA模型;均方根误差除在3 d预见期时略高于HAR模型外,其他预见期均最小。考虑到天气预报准确率随预见期增加而降低,建议预见期不宜大于3 d。进一步在季节尺度下的精度比较显示,MR模型在各季节1~3 d预见期的预报精度均高于HAR模型与FA模型,总体预报精度最高。因此,建议采用MR模型对常州站点进行ET0预报。

    Abstract:

    This study took the Changzhou site as an example, and collected the historical data of meteorological observation during 2000—2017 and the historical data of weather forecast during 2011—2015. We calibrated the Hargreaves-Samani model, the Multiple Regression model and the Fourier analysis model by using the ET0 calculated by historical meteorological data based on the FAO56-PM formula, and applied these three methods to the daily ET0 prediction based on the weather forecast for the next one to seven days during the period form April 21, 2016 to October 24, 2017. The results showed that the MR models had the highest prediction accuracy overall with the lowest δMAE(0. 751 mm/d)and the highest δAAC(87%)during the forecast periods of 1 d, 4 d, and 7 d, except that δRMSE was slightly higher than the HAR model during the forecast period of 3 d. In view of the fact that the accuracy of the weather forecast decreases with the increase of forecast period, it is suggested that the forecast period of Changzhou station should not be longer than three days. Further comparison on the accuracy of seasonal scale showed that the prediction accuracy of the MR model during the forecast periods from 1 d to 3 d in each season is higher than those of HAR model and FA model. Overall, the MR model has the highest prediction accuracy and should be used for ET0 prediction at the Changzhou site.

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徐俊增,刘文豪,刘博弈,等.基于天气预报的参考作物腾发量预报方法比较[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2019,47(2):156-162.(XU Junzeng, LIU Wenhao, LIU Boyi, et al. Comparison of three reference crop evapotranspiration forecasting methods based on weather forecast data[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2019,47(2):156-162.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-03-22
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