In order to study the influence of future climate change on runoff in the Poyang Lake Basin, the VIC hydrological model with 0. 1° resolution was constructed and the parameters were calibrated by the uniform design method. The CMIP5 multi-model meteorological dataset were used to drive the VIC model to evaluate the runoff changes in the Poyang Lake Basin under the RCP2. 6, RCP4. 5, and RCP8. 5 scenarios. The results show that under the scenarios of RCP2. 6 and RCP4. 5, the runoff during the future period(2026—2040)is higher than that during the baseline period(2006—2020), and the runoff under the RCP8. 5 scenario is decreasing. The runoff of all models has an increasing trend in the flood season, while it has a decreasing trend in the dry season, which indicated that the occurrence of hydrological extreme events is even more obvious.