不同GDP增长率下的江苏省用水结构模拟
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TV213

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国家软科学基金(2014GXS4B047);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201301003、201201022)


Simulation of water use structure in Jiangsu Province under different GDP growth rates
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    摘要:

    在全面了解江苏省水资源利用现状的基础上,运用系统动力学方法,根据各子系统之间相互作用的情况,构建江苏省用水结构系统动力学模型,将用水结构作为模型的输出存量,通过对模型参数进行敏感度分析,找出影响用水结构的重要决策变量,并根据GDP高、中、低增长速度以及现状经济发展速度,设计并模拟了4种情景发展方案,分析了区域经济增长速度、总用水量、用水结构之间的响应关系,为江苏省合理制定经济发展规划、优化水资源配置提供决策参考。

    Abstract:

    Based on the full understanding of utilization situation of water resources in Jiangsu Province, a numerical model for water use structure is established by using the system dynamics and analyzing the interaction between various subsystems. Regarding the water use structure as the output of the model, sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is conducted to obtain the important decisive variables for water use structure. According the high, middle and low growth rates of GDP and the development speed of the current economy, four development schemes are designed and simulated. The relationship among growth rate of regional economy, total water use and water use structure is analyzed so as to provide reference for the rational planning of economic development and the optimization of water resource allocation in Jiangsu Province.

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沈家耀,张玲玲.不同GDP增长率下的江苏省用水结构模拟[J].水利经济,2016,34(4):21-25.(SHEN Jiayao, ZHANG Lingling. Simulation of water use structure in Jiangsu Province under different GDP growth rates[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2016,34(4):21-25.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2015-12-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-08-04
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