The flood risk assessment is an important basis for formulating the corresponding flood control and disaster reduction measures and plays an important role in the safety and protection of people's lives and property. In view of the deficiencies and shortcomings of the existing assessment models for flood risks, an assessment system for flood risks is established from the four aspects of disaster-causing, disaster-breeding, disaster-bearing and disaster mitigation through analysis and calculation of 14 evaluation indices. The subjective and the objective weights are solved by using the analytic network process(ANP)and the projection pursuit(PP), respectively. An assessment model for flood risks based on ANP-PP-SPA is established by coupling the subjective and objective weights with the set pair analysis(SPA). Taking Yingde City of Guangdong Province as an example, the applicability of the assessment model for flood risks is verified. The results show that the flood risk grade of 2016 in Yingde City is medium, which accords with the actual situation of 2016 in Yingde City. The assessment model considers the relationship among the indices and reflects the ambiguity and randomness of flood risks, and it can provide a scientific basis for the regional flood risk decision-making and the flood management.
李宛谕,黄显峰,金国裕,等.基于ANP-PP-SPA的区域洪灾风险评价模型研究[J].水利经济,2020,38(4):45-50LI Wanyu, HUANG Xianfeng, JIN Guoyu, et al.(Assessment model for regional flood risks based on ANP-PP-SPA[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2020,38(4):45-50.(in Chinese))复制