滑坡失稳时间预测方法研究综述
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P642.22

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国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508603);国家自然科学基金(51739003,51579085)


A review of temporal prediction methods for landslide failure
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    摘要:

    综述了滑坡失稳时间预报的研究现状,将目前滑坡时间预测方法归纳为基于蠕变经验公式建立的回归模型和基于数学理论的回归模型;简要分析了各模型和方法的适用性以及相关预报判据和预警阈值。为了得出更加准确的结果,必须在对滑坡类型、地质特征、变形特点和形成因素的深入研究基础上,结合合适的预报判据和预警阈值,建立能够描述滑坡发展演化过程以及变形破坏机理的预报模型或方法。

    Abstract:

    The research status associated with landslide time prediction was comprehensively reviewed. The current approach employed in the time of slope failure prediction were generalized as regression models based on empirical formula and mathematical theory respectively. In addition, the applicability of each model and method as well as the relevant prediction criterion and warning threshold were briefly analyzed. In order to acquire more accurate results, it is indispensable to establish an approach that can describe the evolution process of landslide and the mechanism of failure on the basis of in-depth study of landslide types, geological characteristics, and deformation characteristics combined with appropriate criteria and early warning threshold.

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武鑫,郑东健,刘永涛,等.滑坡失稳时间预测方法研究综述[J].水利水电科技进展,2021,41(4):89-94.(WU Xin,, ZHENG Dongjian, et al. A review of temporal prediction methods for landslide failure[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2021,41(4):89-94.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-09-13
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