(1.河海大学水利水电学院,江苏 南京210098;2.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏 南京210098 )
(1.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)
To deeply analyze the influence factors of ship lift deformation, a method for building ship lift deformation monitoring model based on quantile regression is proposed. Based on the structural characteristics of the ship lift, the influence factors such as air temperature and mean value of upstream water level in early stages are introduced into the candidate influence factor set. Adaptive elastic net penalized quantile regression is used for choosing the influence factors of ship lift deformation and building the quantile regression model. The optimal model can be obtained based on the principle of good fitting and validity check. Example verification shows that compared with traditional stepwise regression model, the proposed optimized model has low volatility for prediction accuracy with strong stability, indication a good ability for long term prediction.
杨晨昊,郑东健.基于分位数回归的升船机变形监控模型构建方法[J].水利水电科技进展,2023,43(2):27-32.(YANG Chenhao, ZHENG Dongjian. Construction method for ship lift deformation monitoring model based on quantile regression[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2023,43(2):27-32.(in Chinese))复制