To explore the flood control capacity changes and causes of watersheds, an analysis model of watershed flood control capacity was constructed based on the driving force-state-response (DSR) model. The social and economic development, flood control capacity change and water conservancy construction investment in the Qinhuai River Basin were evaluated and analyzed from the three aspects of driving force, state and response. The results show that the rapid development of urbanization construction in the Qinhuai River Basin was mainly concentrated before 2010, and the development slowed down after 2010. The continuous development of human economic construction caused some damages to the flood control capacity of the basin. However,due to the continuous investment in water conservancy engineering construction, the flood control capacity of the basin was basically improved and guaranteed. The storage capacity of the river network still continues to decline, and the construction and management of small and medium-sized rivers remains to be further reinforced.