基于机器学习模型的河道水位预测
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作者单位:

(1.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏 南京210098;2.河海大学水利水电学院,江苏 南京210098;3.新沂市水务局港头水利站,江苏 徐州221400 )

作者简介:

陈珺(1981—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事智慧水利研究。E-mail:chenjunhhu@hhu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

TV124

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1700802);河海大学大学生创新训练项目(2022102941369)


Prediction of river water level based on machine learning model
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.Gangtou Water Conservancy Station of Xinyi Water Conservancy Bureau, Xuzhou 221400, China)

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    摘要:

    结合已有机器学习模型——卷积神经网络(CNN)和门控循环单元(GRU)的优点,构建了并联卷积循环神经网络(PCNN-GRU)模型,并将其用于赣江下游外洲站日尺度水位变化的预测。结果显示:相较于目前流行的长短时记忆(LSTM)模型、GRU模型以及卷积循环神经网络(CNN-GRU)模型,PCNN-GRU模型的均方根误差和平均绝对误差分别降低了18.39%、21.11%、15.48%和21.31%、18.64%、14.28%,纳什-萨特克里夫效率系数和准确率分别提高至0.999 2和88.12%,表明所建模型具有良好的预测性能,可用于河道水位预测。

    Abstract:

    Combining the advantages of the existing machine learning models, convolutional neural network (CNN) and gated recurrent unit (GRU), a parallel convolutional recurrent neural network (PCNN-GRU) model was constructed and was applied to the prediction of daily water level changes at the Waizhou station in the lower reaches of the Ganjiang River. The results show that, compared with long short-term memory (LSTM), GRU and convolutional recurrent neural network (CNN-GRU) models, the root mean square error and absolute average error of the PCNN-GRU model are decreased by 18.39%, 21.11%, 15.48% and 21.31%, 18.64%, 14.28%, respectively, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and accuracy rate are increased to 0.999 2 and 88.12%, respectively. This indicates that the PCNN-GRU model has good prediction performance, and can be used for river water level prediction.

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引用本文

陈珺,黄燕华,洪朋,等.基于机器学习模型的河道水位预测[J].水利水电科技进展,2023,43(3):9-14.(CHEN Jun, HUANG Yanhua, HONG Peng, et al. Prediction of river water level based on machine learning model[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2023,43(3):9-14.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-17
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