城市暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性评价
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学水利水电学院,江苏 南京210098;2.四川水利职业技术学院,四川 崇州611200;3.江苏省农村水利科技发展中心,江苏 南京210029 )

作者简介:

季孔阳(1999—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事防洪减灾、水利规划研究。E-mail:211302030030@hhu.edu.cn

中图分类号:

TV122+.1;X43

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52079039);江苏省水利科技项目(2020050);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000104)


Assessment of urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.Sichuan Water Conservancy Vocational College, Chongzhou 611200, China;3.Jiangsu Province Rural Water Conservancy Science and Technology Development Center, Nanjing 210029, China)

  • 摘要
  • | |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • | |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    基于脆弱性概念阐述暴雨洪涝灾害下的城市脆弱性内涵,从暴露度、敏感性和适应能力3个方面构建了包含11个指标的城市暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性综合评价指标体系和评价模型,并确定脆弱性等级划分标准。以南京市秦淮区为例,针对100年一遇设计暴雨情景,基于MIKE一二维耦合模型,定量分析指标值,采用构建的评价模型计算了城市暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性指数,对极端暴雨情景下研究区的脆弱性进行了评价,绘制了研究区脆弱性空间分布图,分析了脆弱性分布特点与成因。结果表明:MIKE一二维耦合模型可用于暴露度指标中最大淹没水深和时段末淹没水深的获取;河流沿岸且地势较为平坦的区域,交通路网中的低洼区域、立交桥下易形成积水的区域,人口稠密、GDP产值高、暴露程度较高的居民住宅区与企业中心等区域脆弱性较高。

    Abstract:

    The connotation of urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters is expounded based on the concept of vulnerability. A comprehensive evaluation index system and an evaluation model for urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters are constructed from three aspects: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability, including 11 indicators. The criteria for dividing vulnerability levels are determined. Taking Qinhuai District of Nanjing City as an example, for a 100-year return period design rainstorm scenario, quantitative analysis of the indicator values is conducted using the MIKE coupled one- and two-dimensional model. The index of urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters is evaluated using the constructed evaluation model. A spatial distribution map of vulnerability in the research area is drawn, and the characteristics and causes of vulnerability distribution are analyzed. The results show that the MIKE coupled one- and two-dimensional model can be used to obtain the maximum inundation depth and end-of-period inundation depth in the exposure index. Areas along rivers with relatively flat terrain, low-lying areas in the transportation network, areas prone to water accumulation under overpasses, densely populated areas, high GDP value areas, and areas with high exposure levels such as residential areas and business centers exhibit higher vulnerability.

    参考文献
    [1] IPCC.Climate change 2014:impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability.Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014.
    [2] IPCC.Climate change 2021:the physical science basis.Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2021.
    [3] MLLER A,REITER J,WEILAND U.Assessment of urban vulnerability towards floods using an indicator-based approach:a case study for Santiago de Chile[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2011,11(8):2107-2123.
    [4] ERENA S H,WORKU H.Urban flood vulnerability assessments:the case of Dire Dawa City,Ethiopia[J].Natural Hazards,2019,97(2):495-516.
    [5] NAZEER M,BORK H R.A local scale flood vulnerability assessment in the flood-prone area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,Pakistan[J].Natural Hazards,2021,105(1):755-781.
    [6] CHAN S W,ABID S K,SULAIMAN N,et al.A systematic review of the flood vulnerability using geographic information system[J].Heliyon,2022,8(3):e09075.
    [7] TANAKA T,KIYOHARA K,TACHIKAWA Y.Comparison of fluvial and pluvial flood risk curves in urban cities derived from a large ensemble climate simulation dataset:a case study in Nagoya,Japan[J].Journal of Hydrology,2020,584:124706.
    [8] MUTHUSAMY M,RIVAS CASADO M,SALMORAL G,et al.A remote sensing based integrated approach to quantify the impact of fluvial and pluvial flooding in an urban catchment[J].Remote Sensing,2019,11(5):577.
    [9] 陈轶,刘涛,张峰,等.面向城市洪涝的社会脆弱性空间识别与规划策略:以南京市为例[J].城市发展研究,2023,30(2):23-31.(CHEN Yi,LIU Tao,ZHANG Feng,et al.The spatial identification of social vulnerability to urban floods and planning strategy:a case study of Nanjing[J].Urban Development Studies,2023,30(2):23-31.(in Chinese))
    [10] 黄晶,佘靖雯.长江三角洲城市群洪涝灾害脆弱性评估及影响因素分析[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2020,22(6):39-45.(HUANG Jing, SHE Jingwen.Vulnerability assessment and influencing factors analysis of urban flood disaster in Yangtze River Delta city cluster[J].Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Social Sciences),2020,22(6):39-45.(in Chinese))
    [11] 汪群,虞刘悦,吴兆丹,等.长江经济带城市洪涝脆弱性评估:以南京、武汉和成都为例[J].水利经济,2020,38(3):55-61.(WANG Qun,YU Liuyue,WU Zhaodan,et al.Assessment of vulnerability to urban floods in Yangtze River economic belt:taking Nanjing,Wuhan and Chengdu as examples[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2020,38(3):55-61.(in Chinese))
    [12] WATSON R T,ALBRITTON D L,BARKER T,et al.Climate change 2001:synthesis report.A contribution of working groups Ⅰ,Ⅱ,and Ⅲ to the third assessment report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001.
    [13] DE ANDRADE M M N,SZLAFSZTEIN C F.Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition:an amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,630:903-912.
    [14] CUTTER S L,FINCH C.Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2008,105(7):2301-2306.
    [15] WEIS S W M,AGOSTINI V N,ROTH L M,et al.Assessing vulnerability:an integrated approach for mapping adaptive capacity,sensitivity,and exposure[J].Climatic Change,2016,136(3/4):615-629.
    [16] 姚蕊,杨群涛,张书亮.城市暴雨内涝灾害脆弱性研究综述[J].水资源保护,2023,39(1):93-100.(YAO Rui,YANG Quntao,ZHANG Shuliang.Review on vulnerability of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster[J].Water Resources Protection,2023,39(1):93-100.(in Chinese))
    [17] 高玉琴,徐佳颖,袁晨禹,等.南京市不同城市化水平区域洪灾风险评价[J].水资源与水工程学报,2022,33(6):120-128.(GAO Yuqin,XU Jiaying,YUAN Chenyu,et al.Flood risk assessment of regions at different urbanization levels in Nanjing City[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2022,33(6):120-128.(in Chinese))
    [18] 张金萍,张朝阳,左其亭.极端暴雨下城市内涝模拟与应急响应能力评估[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2023,44(2):30-37.(ZHANG Jinping,ZHANG Zhaoyang,ZUO Qiting.Urban waterlogging simulation and emergency response capacity evaluation with extreme rainstorms[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2023,44(2):30-37.(in Chinese))
    [19] 俞小鼎.短时强降水临近预报的思路与方法[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(3):202-209.(YU Xiaoding.Nowcasting thinking and method of flash heavy rain[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2013,32(3):202-209.(in Chinese))
    [20] 倪志楠,李琼芳,杜付然,等.南京市短历时设计暴雨雨型研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2019,30(2):57-62.(NI Zhinan,LI Qiongfang,DU Furan,et al.Study on design of rainstorm pattern based on short duration in Nanjing City[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2019,30(2):57-62.(in Chinese))
    [21] 蒋飞阳,田健,艾合麦提·那麦提,等.应对暴雨洪涝灾害的平原城市生态水文调节服务供需评估:以天津市为例[J].生态学报,2023,43(12):4928-4942.(JIANG Feiyang,TIAN Jian,NAMAITI A,et al.Assessment of the supply-demand relationship of plain urban eco-hydrological regulation service in response to rainstorm-flood disaster:a case study of Tianjin City[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2023,43(12):4928-4942.(in Chinese))
    [22] 杨伟超.山洪灾害多尺度格局演变分析与脆弱性评估调控研究[D].天津:天津大学,2018.
    [23] 郑德凤,高敏,李钰,等.基于GIS的大连市暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险评估[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2022,50(3):1-8.(ZHENG Defeng,GAO Min,LI Yu,et al.Comprehensive risk assessment of rainstorm-flood disaster in Dalian City based on GIS[J].Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences),2022,50(3):1-8.(in Chinese))
    [24] 陈萍,王兴玲,陈晓玲.基于栅格的鄱阳湖生态经济区洪灾脆弱性评价[J].地理科学,2012,32(8):958-964.(CHEN Ping,WANG Xingling,CHEN Xiaoling.Flood vulnerability assessment of Poyang Lake Economical Ecological Zone at raster level[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(8):958-964.(in Chinese))
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

季孔阳,李学明,高见,等.城市暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性评价[J].水利水电科技进展,2024,44(3):13-20.(JI Kongyang, LI Xueming, GAO Jian, et al. Assessment of urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2024,44(3):13-20.(in Chinese))

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:392
  • 下载次数: 827
  • HTML阅读次数: 0
  • 引用次数: 0
历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-05-16
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-05-28