非一致性条件下松澧地区洪水遭遇规律分析
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(1.长沙理工大学水利与环境工程学院,湖南 长沙410114;2.洞庭湖水环境治理与生态修复湖南省重点实验室,湖南 长沙410114;3.湖南省水利水电勘测设计规划研究总院有限公司,湖南 长沙410007 )

作者简介:

隆院男(1985—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:lynzhb@csust.edu.cn

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TV122

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52079010);湖南省重点研发计划项目(2020SK2130);湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX20220910)


Analysis of flood coincidence law in Song-Li Region under non-consistency conditions
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Affiliation:

(1.School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China;2.Key Laboratory of Dongting Lake Aquatic Eco-Environmental Control and Restoration of Hunan Province, Changsha 410114, China;3.Hunan Water Resources and Hydropower Survey, Design, Planning and Research Co., Ltd., Changsha 410007, China)

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    摘要:

    为研究澧水与松滋河洪水遭遇规律,根据澧水石门站和松滋河新江口站、沙道观站1959—2020年实测日均流量资料,采用非一致性GAMLSS模型优选了年最大洪峰和连续7.d年最大洪量的边缘分布,构建了基于Copula函数的二维联合分布模型,进而得出不同量级组合下的洪水遭遇概率。结果表明:松澧地区的洪水序列发生了显著变异,基于时变对数正态、伽马、威布尔分布以及Copula联合分布能够较好地反映区域实际洪水特征;松澧地区典型年洪水遭遇以松滋河洪水过程遭遇澧水洪水为主;澧水与松滋河的年最大洪峰或连续7.d年最大洪量的同现概率随着洪水量级的增大而减小,且澧水与松滋河东支的洪水遭遇概率更高;当澧水发生千年一遇大洪水时,与松滋河中小洪水的遭遇概率更高。

    Abstract:

    To study the flood coincidence law of the Lishui River and Songzi River, based on the measured mean daily flow data at the Shimen Station in the Lishui River and at the Xinjiangkou Station and Shadaoguan Station in the Songzi River from 1959 to 2020, a non-uniform GAMLSS model was used to optimize the marginal distributions of the annual maximum flood peak and 7-day continuous annual maximum flood volume. A two-dimensional joint distribution model was constructed based on the Copula function, and the probability of flood coincidence under different combinations of magnitudes was calculated. The results show that the flood sequence in the Song-Li Region has undergone significant variation, and the actual flood characteristics of the region can be described by the time-varying log-normal distribution, Gamma distribution, Weibull distribution, and Copula joint distribution. The typical annual flood encountered in the Song-Li area is mainly the Songzi River flood process and the Lishui River flood. The probability of co-occurrence of the annual maximum flood peaks or 7-day continuous maximum flood volumes of the Lishui and Songzi rivers decreases with the increase of flood magnitude, and the probability of flood coincidence in the Lishui River and the eastern branch of the Songzi Rivers is higher. When a 1 000-year flood occurs in the Lishui River, the probability of co-occurrence of the 1 000-year flood in the Lishui River and small- and medium-sized floods in the Songzi River is higher.

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隆院男,黄春福,莫军成,等.非一致性条件下松澧地区洪水遭遇规律分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2024,44(4):14-22.(LONG Yuannan, HUANG Chunfu, MO Juncheng, et al. Analysis of flood coincidence law in Song-Li Region under non-consistency conditions[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2024,44(4):14-22.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2023-04-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-07-19
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