Aiming at the problems of the current real-time risk rate models for extra-high arch dams, such as over-reliance on monitoring statistics, difficulty in linking the physical characteristics of the structure and the critical state, and ambiguous mapping relationship between the measured data and the critical state, a real-time risk rate model for extra-high arch dams based on the finite element forward and inverse analysis is proposed. This model uses the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) and multi-output support vector regression (MSVR) inversion to determine the integrated physical and mechanical parameters of the dam body and foundation. Using the plastic strain energy criterion, it calculates the safety factor against overload of the dam in service under the limit state, identifies the critical deformation values, and derives the real-time risk rate based on the theory of engineering reliability and the safety specification of arch dams. The results of a case study of an extra-high arch dam in Southwest China show that the model can effectively link the relationship between the deformation monitoring data of the extra-high arch dam and the critical state of the project, improve the inversion efficiency of the elastic modulus of the dam body and the deformation modulus of the dam foundation, and realize the structural safety monitoring and early warning of extra-high arch dams. It can be used for long-term performance assessment and real-time risk rate control of extra-high arch dams.