城市暴雨洪涝灾害特征与风险评估研究进展
作者:
作者单位:

(1.北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875;2.城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京100875 )

作者简介:

徐宗学(1962—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:zxxu@bnu.edu.cn

中图分类号:

TV122

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金重点项目(52239003)


Research progress on urban flooding disaster characteristics and risk assessment
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2.Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, China)

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    摘要:

    围绕城市洪涝灾害形成过程的多样性、复杂性、连锁性特点,分析了城市洪涝灾害的构成和形成机制,总结了城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险的不确定性、不稳定性、非单一性特征,解析了城市洪涝致灾过程中承灾体的暴露性、脆弱性、易损性特点,比较了城市洪涝灾害风险评估中H-V、H-E-V和H-E-V-R三种框架的适用性,提出了城市洪涝灾害风险评估流程,辨析了城市洪涝灾害风险评估中历史灾情评估法、指标体系评估法、GIS和RS耦合法、情景模拟评估法以及多智能体模型评估法的适用条件和优缺点。指出未来城市洪涝灾害风险评估手段将从定性分析向定量评估转变,评估对象将从洪涝灾害本身向承灾体转变。

    Abstract:

    Focusing on the characteristics of diversity, complexity, and linkage in the formation process of urban flooding disasters, the composition and formation mechanism of urban flooding disasters was analyzed, the uncertainty, instability, and non-uniformity characteristics of the urban flooding disaster risk were summarized, and the exposure, vulnerability, and fragility of the disaster-bearing bodies in the disaster-causing urban flooding were investigated. The applicability of H-V, H-E-V, and H-E-V-R frameworks in urban flooding disaster risk assessment was compared, the process of urban flooding disaster risk assessment was proposed, and the applicable conditions, advantages and disadvantages of historical disaster assessment method, index system assessment method, GIS and RS coupling method, scenario simulation assessment method, and multi-agent model evaluation method were investigated. It is pointed out that future risk assessment methods for urban flood disasters will evolve from qualitative analysis to quantitative evaluation, and the focus of assessment will shift from the flood disasters themselves to the disaster-bearing bodies.

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引用本文

徐宗学,卢兴超,施奇妙.城市暴雨洪涝灾害特征与风险评估研究进展[J].水利水电科技进展,2025,45(1):1-9.(XU Zongxue, LU Xingchao, SHI Qimiao. Research progress on urban flooding disaster characteristics and risk assessment[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2025,45(1):1-9.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-13
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-24