基于多模型融合的椒江流域季节性径流集合预报
作者:
作者单位:

(浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江 杭州310058 )

作者简介:

周鹏(1998—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水文预报研究。E-mail:22112096@zju.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

TV213.4

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1700802);浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(LZ20E090001)


Ensemble forecasting of seasonal streamflow in the Jiaojiang River Basin based on multi-model fusion
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(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

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    摘要:

    为提高季节性径流预报能力,分别耦合数值天气预报与新安江模型、分布式水文-土壤-植被(DHSVM)模型和长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型对浙江省椒江流域2012—2020年的月径流量进行集合预报,采用等权重、不等权重和BP神经网络等不同方法对预报结果进行融合,比较了不同融合方法的预报效果与单一模型的最优预报效果。结果表明:BP神经网络融合法显著提高了预报精度,明显优于其他方法,并在春、夏、秋、冬4个季节都大幅延长了有效预见期,能够为流域水资源管理与利用提供更为准确的水情预报信息。

    Abstract:

    In order to enhance the predictability of seasonal streamflow, numerical weather prediction was coupled with the Xin’anjiang model, the distributed hydrological soil vegetation model (DHSVM), and the long short-term memory model (LSTM) for ensemble forecasting of monthly streamflow in the Jiaojiang River Basin from 2012 to 2020. Three different methods, namely, equal weighting, unequal weighting, and BP neural network-based weighting, were employed to fuse the outputs from the three models. Comparison was made between the fused forecasts and the optimal forecasts of single models. The results indicate that the BP neural network fusion method significantly enhances the forecasting accuracy, demonstrating superior performance over other methods. Notably, this method substantially extends the effective forecast lead time across all four distinct seasons (spring, summer, autumn, and winter), thereby providing more reliable hydrological predictions for water resources management and utilization in the basin.

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周鹏,许月萍,周欣磊,等.基于多模型融合的椒江流域季节性径流集合预报[J].水利水电科技进展,2025,45(3):62-69.(ZHOU Peng, XU Yueping, ZHOU Xinlei, et al. Ensemble forecasting of seasonal streamflow in the Jiaojiang River Basin based on multi-model fusion[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2025,45(3):62-69.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-20
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