基于可解释机器学习的混凝土重力坝变形安全监控模型
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作者单位:

(1.西安理工大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室,陕西 西安710048;2.西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西 西安710048 )

作者简介:

程琳(1986—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事大坝安全智能监控、数字孪生和无损检测技术研究。E-mail:chenglin@xaut.edu.cn

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TV642

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52479133);国家自然科学基金-黄河水科学研究联合基金项目(U2443230)


Deformation safety monitoring model of concrete gravity dam based on interpretable machine learning
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Affiliation:

(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China;2.Institute of Water Resources and Hydro-electric Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China)

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    摘要:

    针对目前基于机器学习的大坝安全监控模型无法给出模型预测解释的问题,引入SHAP值理论,并结合LightGBM模型,建立了一种具备可解释性的混凝土重力坝变形安全监控模型,且该模型可以量化每个影响因子的具体贡献。工程实例验证结果表明,该模型考虑了变形与环境量之间复杂的非线性关系,更接近真实情况,不仅具有良好的拟合精度和预测精度,还能对模型进行全局和局部的解释。

    Abstract:

    In order to solve the problem that current machine learning-based dam safety monitoring models cannot give the explanation of the model prediction, the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) value theory was introduced, and combined with the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) model, an interpretable safety monitoring model for concrete gravity dam deformation was established. The model can quantify the specific contribution of each impact factor. The verification results of an engineering example show that the model considers the complex nonlinear relationship between deformation and the environmental quantities, which is closer to the real situation, and it not only has good fitting accuracy and prediction accuracy, but also can interpret the model globally and locally.

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程琳,袁喜娜,马春辉,等.基于可解释机器学习的混凝土重力坝变形安全监控模型[J].水利水电科技进展,2025,45(3):77-85.(CHENG Lin, YUAN Xina, MA Chunhui, et al. Deformation safety monitoring model of concrete gravity dam based on interpretable machine learning[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2025,45(3):77-85.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-20
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