1983—2023年漓江上游降雨时空演变特征精细解析
作者:
作者单位:

(1.南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京210029;2.广西壮族自治区桂林水文中心,广西 桂林541000;3.桂林市水利电力勘测设计研究院,广西 桂林541001;4.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京210098 )

作者简介:

徐珂(1999—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源、水平衡健康调控技术研究。E-mail:nhrixk1128@163.com

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中图分类号:

P333

基金项目:

广西重点研发计划项目(桂科AB22080093,桂科AB22035075)


Detailed analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of rainfall in the upper Lijiang River Basin from 1983 to 2023
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;2.Guilin Hydrological Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guilin 541000, China;3.Guilin Water Conservancy and Hydropower Survey and Design Institute, Guilin 541001, China;4.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    以桂林防洪及水资源保障的关键区域漓江上游为研究区,基于泰森多边形法将1983—2023年38个雨量观测站逐日实测降水量数据转换为13个子流域的面降水量数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和极点对称模态分解方法,按水文年从全年、主汛期、后汛期和枯水期4个时间尺度解析降雨的时空演变特征,并采用时间与空间变差系数揭示降雨时空不均匀度。结果表明:流域年降水量和主汛期降水量分别以11.36 mm/a和9.10 mm/a的速率显著增长,后汛期和枯水期降水量总体无明显趋势,漓江上游流域汛期洪涝风险增加;流域年内降雨时空分配不均,13个子流域多年时间变差系数均值为2.174,时间不均匀度呈不显著增大趋势,丰枯差异越来越大,全年、主汛期和枯水期空间变差系数呈不显著下降趋势,降雨空间分布趋于均匀,而后汛期空间不均匀度呈不显著增大趋势,该时段水库群调控难度增大;漓江上游降雨在不同的时空尺度都出现了明显变化且变化特征不一致,上游水库群的防洪与兴利调度以及桂林的城市防洪难度更高,漓江生态景观流量保障也面临更大的不确定性。

    Abstract:

    Taking the upper Lijiang River Basin, a critical area for flood control and water resources security in Guilin, as the study area, the daily measured rainfall data of 38 rainfall observation stations from 1983 to 2023 were converted into areal rainfall data of 13 spatial sub-basins based on the Thiessen polygon method. The Mann-Kendall trend test and the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method were employed to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of rainfall across four temporal scales: the entire hydrological year, the main flood season, the post-flood season, and the dry season. The spatial and temporal unevenness of rainfall was revealed based on the temporal and spatial variation coefficients. The results indicate that the annual rainfall and the rainfall during the main flood season increased significantly at rates of 11.36 mm/a and 9.10 mm/a, respectively, while the rainfall in the post-flood season and the dry season showed no significant trend, which enhanced the risk of flooding during the flood season in the upper Lijiang River Basin. The annual distribution of rainfall in the basin was spatially and temporally uneven, and the average temporal variation coefficient of the 13 spatial sub-basins was 2.174, indicating a non-significant increasing trend in temporal inhomogeneity and a widening disparity between wet and dry periods. Spatial variation coefficients exhibited a slightly decreasing trend throughout the entire year, the main flood season, and the dry season, suggesting the spatial distribution of rainfall tends to be more uniform, while spatial inhomogeneity increased slightly during the post-flood season, complicating the regulation of reservoir groups during this period. The rainfall in the upper Lijiang River Basin has exhibited distinct and inconsistent changes at different temporal and spatial scales. These changes increase the complexity of flood control and beneficial operation for the upstream reservoir groups, elevate the challenge for urban flood control in Guilin, and introduce greater uncertainty in the ecological landscape flow guarantee of the Lijiang River.

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徐珂,陈炼钢,吴树诚,等.1983—2023年漓江上游降雨时空演变特征精细解析[J].水利水电科技进展,2025,45(4):85-93.(XU Ke, CHEN Liangang, WU Shucheng, et al. Detailed analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of rainfall in the upper Lijiang River Basin from 1983 to 2023[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2025,45(4):85-93.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-30
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