梯级坝群系统服役风险评估与调控研究现状与展望
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作者单位:

(1.河海大学水利水电学院,江苏 南京210098;2.水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏 南京210098;3.中国长江电力股份有限公司,湖北 武汉430014 )

作者简介:

苏怀智(1973—),男,教授,博士,主要从事涉水工程安全防控与提能延寿研究。E-mail:su_huaizhi@hhu.edu.cn

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TV642

基金项目:

水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心开放研究基金项目(GJGCZX-JJ-202428);国家自然科学基金重点项目(52239009)


Research status and prospects of service risk assessment and regulation for cascade dam systems
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Affiliation:

(1.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Nanjing 210098, China;3.China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Wuhan 430014, China)

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    摘要:

    梯级坝群作为流域水资源统一调配和水电能源开发的重要工程体系,其运行过程呈现多源风险叠加、传递与放大的复杂系统特征。随着国家对流域梯级开发的大力推进以及大坝安全风险管理体系建设的日益加强,梯级坝群系统的风险管理问题已成为水利工程安全领域的研究重点。本文围绕梯级坝群系统的风险传递效应,系统梳理了梯级坝群系统风险概率计算、损失评估、风险等级划分及协同调控等关键环节的研究现状,指出今后应加强梯级坝群系统溃坝洪水演进精细模拟、多源风险耦合分析、风险评估体系完善、多维协同调控策略制定以及流域智能管理平台构建等方面的研究,以期系统提升梯级坝群的风险防控能力与调控水平。

    Abstract:

    As an important engineering system for integrated allocation of water resources and hydroelectric energy development in river basins, cascade dam systems exhibit complex systematic characteristics characterized by the superposition, transmission and amplification of multi-source risks during operation. With China’s vigorous promotion of basin cascade development and the continuous strengthening of dam safety risk management system construction, risk management of cascade dam systems has become a research priority in the field of hydraulic engineering safety. Concentrated on the risk transmission effects within cascade dam systems, advances in the aspects of risk probability calculation, loss assessment, risk classification and coordinated regulation were reviewed. It is pointed out that future research should focus on the high-fidelity simulation of dam-break flood propagation in cascade systems, the coupling analysis of multi-source risks, the improvement of risk assessment frameworks, the formulation of multi-dimensional coordinated regulation strategies and the construction of intelligent river basin management platforms, with the aim of systematically enhancing the risk prevention and control capabilities as well as the regulation level of cascade dam systems.

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引用本文

苏怀智,高建新,傅志敏,等.梯级坝群系统服役风险评估与调控研究现状与展望[J].水利水电科技进展,2025,45(5):1-12.(SU Huaizhi, GAO Jianxin, FU Zhimin, et al. Research status and prospects of service risk assessment and regulation for cascade dam systems[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2025,45(5):1-12.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-29
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