基于EEMD-AFSA-CNN的混凝土坝变形预测模型
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(1.河海大学水利水电学院;2.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室 )

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付思韬(2001—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水工结构安全监控研究。E-mail:1416937196@qq.com

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52379122);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B230201011)


Concrete dam deformation prediction model based on EEMD-AFSA-CNN
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(1.Collegeof Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University; 2.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University)

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    摘要:

    为解决混凝土坝原型监测数据存在噪声干扰,用于变形预测的智能算法超参数众多且调优困难等问题,提出了基于集合经验模态分解(EEMD)-人工鱼群算法(AFSA)-卷积神经网络(CNN)的混凝土坝变形预测模型。该模型利用EEMD对原始变形数据进行分解获取本征模态函数(IMF),采用小波阈值去噪方法对含噪IMF分量进行去噪处理并对各分量进行重构,并基于AFSA优化CNN模型的超参数,将重构后的数据用参数寻优后的CNN模型进行训练,并将训练好的模型用于预测。某特高拱坝实例验证结果表明,与CNN、极限学习机(ELM)、反向传播(BP)神经网络等模型进行对比,该模型在混凝土坝变形预测中具有更高的精度和更强的稳定性。

    Abstract:

    In order to solve the issues of noise interference in the prototype monitoring data of concrete dams and the difficulty in optimizing the numerous hyperparameters of intelligent algorithm used for deformation prediction, a concrete dam deformation prediction model is proposed based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA) and convolutional neural network (CNN). This model uses EEMD to decompose the original dam deformation data to obtain the intrinsic mode function (IMF), and utilizes the wavelet threshold denoising method to denoise the noisy IMF components and reconstruct the components. The hyperparameters of the CNN model are optimized using the AFSA, and the reconstructed data is trained with the optimized CNN model. The trained model is subsequently used for prediction. The validation results from a case study of a high arch dam show that, compared with models such as CNN, extreme learning machine (ELM) and back propagation (BP) neural network, the proposed model exhibits higher accuracy and stronger stability in concrete dam deformation prediction.

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付思韬,赖宇杰,顾冲时,等.基于EEMD-AFSA-CNN的混凝土坝变形预测模型[J].水利水电科技进展,2026,46(1):48-53.(Fu Sitao, Lai Yujie, Gu Chongshi, et al. Concrete dam deformation prediction model based on EEMD-AFSA-CNN[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2026,46(1):48-53.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-03
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