结合流域产流时空分布的径流智能模拟
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作者单位:

(浙江大学建筑工程学院 )

作者简介:

管泽鉴(2001—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水文模拟研究。E-mail:22312101@zju.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

P338+.2

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1700802);国家自然科学基金项目(52479028)


Intelligent streamflow simulation incorporating spatiotemporal distribution of watershed runoff generation
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(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University)

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    摘要:

    针对当前径流智能模拟对水文物理过程考虑不足的问题,提出了结合流域产流时空分布的径流智能模拟方法,以浙江省永安溪流域为例,构建了以SWAT模型子流域3种逐日产流组分为输入的tri-SWAT-Transformer模型,并将该模型与SWAT模型等对照模型的径流模拟结果进行比较。结果表明:tri-SWAT-Transformer模型的径流模拟改善效果最明显,率定期和验证期纳什效率系数分别为0.95、0.89,较SWAT模型分别提升了90.0%、107.0%;在高流量条件下,tri-SWAT-Transformer模型的模拟效果最好,其纳什效率系数较SWAT模型提升了200.0%,百分比偏差、均方根误差较SWAT模型分别降低了89.6%、68.8%。通过产流组分与径流组分相关性分析解释了tri-SWAT-Transformer模型优于其他模型的原因,认为tri-SWAT-Transformer模型能通过Transformer的多头注意力机制,充分捕捉各类产流水文物理过程的时空分布特征,对产流信息时空分布特征利用程度均高于其他对照模型。

    Abstract:

    To address the insufficient consideration of hydrological physical processes in current intelligent streamflow simulation, an intelligent streamflow simulation method incorporating the spatiotemporal distribution of watershed runoff generation was proposed. Taking the Yong’anxi River Basin in Zhejiang Province as a case study, a tri-SWAT-Transformer model was developed using the three daily runoff generation components simulated by the SWAT model for each sub-basin as model inputs. The simulation performance of the proposed model was compared with that of the SWAT model and other comparative models. The results show that the tri-SWAT-Transformer model achieves the best streamflow simulation performance, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.95 and 0.89 during the calibration and validation periods, representing improvements of 90.0% and 107.0%, respectively, over the SWAT model. Under high-flow conditions, the proposed model also performs best, with the NSE increased by 200.0%, and the percent bias and root mean square error reduced by 89.6% and 68.8%, respectively, compared with the SWAT model. Furthermore, correlation analysis between runoff generation components and streamflow components explains why the tri-SWAT-Transformer model outperforms the other models. The results indicate that the tri-SWAT-Transformer model can fully capture the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of various runoff generation hydrological physical processes through the multi-head attention mechanism of Transformer, and makes better use of the spatiotemporal distribution of runoff generation information than other reference models.

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管泽鉴,郭玉雪,许月萍,等.结合流域产流时空分布的径流智能模拟[J].水利水电科技进展,2026,46(5):51-57.(Guan Zejian, Guo Yuxue, Xu Yueping, et al. Intelligent streamflow simulation incorporating spatiotemporal distribution of watershed runoff generation[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2026,46(5):51-57.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-12
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