基于毕达哥拉斯模糊云模型的大型灌区工程安全评价
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作者单位:

(1.河海大学水利水电学院;2.长江水利水电开发集团(湖北)有限公司;3.南京水利科学研究院;4.河南省赵口引黄灌区二期工程建设管理局 )

作者简介:

岑威钧(1977—) ,男,教授,博士,主要从事工程渗流分析与土石坝安全评价研究。E-mail:hhucwj@163.com

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中图分类号:

TV698.2+1

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Safety evaluation of large-scale irrigation district projects based on Pythagorean fuzzy cloud model
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University;2.ChangjiangWater Resources and Hydropower Development Group Co., Ltd.;3.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute;4.Construction Management Bureau of the Phase II Project of Zhaokou Yellow River Diversion Irrigation District, Henan Province)

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    摘要:

    在综合分析灌区建筑物组成、运行特点等基础上,从渠道工程风险、其他建筑物工程风险、暴雨洪水风险、地震及冰冻风险、运行管理风险5个方面入手,构建了包括渠坡滑坡、主体失稳、消能破坏、建筑物震损、历史险情等20个指标的大型灌区工程安全评价指标体系。引入序关系分析法和变异系数法对评价指标进行主观和客观赋权,并基于博弈论进行组合赋权,有效提升了指标赋权的准确性和可靠性。同时,在传统云模型中引入毕达哥拉斯模糊数,建立了适用于复杂灌区工程安全评价的毕达哥拉斯模糊云模型,并对河南省某大型灌区工程进行了评价研究。结果表明,该灌区工程综合安全评价指数为0.857,安全等级判定为安全,应用毕达哥拉斯模糊云模型得到的安全评价结果具有较高的稳定性,为大型灌区工程安全评价提供了新途径。

    Abstract:

    Based on a comprehensive analysis of the structure composition and operational characteristics of irrigation districts, a safety evaluation indicator system for large-scale irrigation district projects was constructed from five aspects: channel engineering risk, risk of other structures, rainstorm and flood risk, earthquake and frost risk, and operation and management risk. The system includes 20 indicators, such as canal slope landslide, main structure instability, energy dissipation failure, structural seismic damage, and historical hazard events. The order relation analysis method and the coefficient of variation method were employed to calculate the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indicators, respectively, and combined weighting was determined based on game theory, which effectively improved the accuracy and reliability of the indicator weighting. Furthermore, the Pythagorean fuzzy number was introduced into the traditional cloud model, and a Pythagorean fuzzy cloud model suitable for the safety evaluation of complex irrigation districts was established. Finally, the model was used to evaluate the safety of a large-scale irrigation district in Henan Province. The results show that the comprehensive safety index of the irrigation district is 0.857, classifying it as “safe”. The safety evaluation results derived from the Pythagorean fuzzy cloud model exhibit high stability, providing a novel method for safety evaluation of large-scale irrigation districts.

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岑威钧,王肖鑫,李子阳,等.基于毕达哥拉斯模糊云模型的大型灌区工程安全评价[J].水利水电科技进展,2026,46(5):74-80.(Cen Weijun, Wang Xiaoxin, Li Ziyang, et al. Safety evaluation of large-scale irrigation district projects based on Pythagorean fuzzy cloud model[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2026,46(5):74-80.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-12
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