基于区域回归分析法的浙江省洪水计算分区
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Flood zoning calculation in Zhejiang Province based on regional regression analytical method
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    摘要:

    以浙江省122个水文站历年最大洪峰流量与不同时段雨强、流域面积、河长、河床比降为指标,建立区域回归方程,利用该回归方程计算各水文站历年最大洪峰流量,并与实测值比较,结果表明计算值与实测值相关关系的分区规律明显,可将浙江省分为两个洪水计算区,计算值大于实测值的站点相对集中于钱塘江中上游、瓯江中上游、浦阳江、曹娥江等区域,占该区全部站点的69.5%;计算值小于实测值的站点相对集中于天目山、会稽山、四明山、天台山、大盘山、括苍山、南北雁荡山等呈“7”字形分布区域,占该区全部站点的73%。该分区结果与浙江省梅雨、台风雨以及土地利用、植被等分区总体吻合,表明分区结果是合理的,该分区方法具有可行性。

    Abstract:

    Taking the annual maximum flood peak flow, rainfall intensity, drainage area, river length, and river slope at different periods of 122 hydrological stations in Zhejiang Province as indicators, the regional regression equation is established. Then, the regression equation is used to calculate the annual maximum flood peak flow at those hydrological stations. Comparing the calculated values with observations, the results show that the relation between them significantly follows the regionalization rules. Therefore, Zhejiang Province can be divided into two flood calculation zones. Points where the calculated value is bigger than the measured focus on the areas such as the middle and upper reaches of the Qiantang River, the middle and upper reaches of the Ou River, the Puyang River, and the Cao’e River, and the points account for 69.5% of whole points in the zone; points where the calculated value is smaller than the measured focus on the areas such as the Tianmu Mountain, Kuaiji Mountain, Siming Mountain, Tiantai Mountain, Dapan Mountain, Kuocang Mountain, and the North and South Yandang Mountain, distributing as “7” glyph, and the points account for 73% of whole points in the zone. The result matches the zonings of plum rains (East Asian rainy season), typhoon rain, land utilization, vegetation, etc., in Zhejiang Province, which reveals that the zoning result is reasonable and the zoning method is feasible.

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伍远康,陶永格,刘福瑶.基于区域回归分析法的浙江省洪水计算分区[J].水利水电科技进展,2015,35(4):39-43.(WU Yuankang, TAO Yongge, LIU Fuyao. Flood zoning calculation in Zhejiang Province based on regional regression analytical method[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2015,35(4):39-43.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-07-12
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