黄河宁夏段干支流非一致性洪峰遭遇风险分析
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TV122+.5

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国家自然科学基金(51179117,51209157)


Coincidence risk analysis for non-stationary flood peak of Yellow River and its tributaries in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
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    摘要:

    对黄河和清水河非一致性洪峰进行遭遇风险分析。采用综合诊断法对洪峰序列进行变异性诊断,引入混合von Mises 分布和混合P-Ⅲ分布对洪峰发生时间和洪峰量级进行拟合;选择非对称部分嵌套Archimedean Copula函数,构建两河洪峰联合分布并分析两河洪峰发生时间和量级遭遇情况,绘制各种频率组合遭遇概率分布图。结果表明:两河洪峰序列均发生变异,两河洪峰发生时间遭遇概率在7月31日和8月31日达到最大,分别为3.36×10-4和1.15×10-4;不同频率洪峰遭遇概率在7月26日至8月2日和8月31日至9月5日两个时段达到最大。

    Abstract:

    The coincidence risk of the non-stationary flood peak between the Yellow River and Qingshui River was analyzed. The variability of flood peak time series was detected using the comprehensive diagnosis method. The mixed Von Mises distribution and mixed P-Ⅲ distribution were used to fit the flood occurrence dates and peak magnitudes, respectively. The asymmetric partially nested Archimedean Copula function was selected to establish the joint distribution of flood peaks of the two rivers, and the occurrence dates and corresponding magnitudes between the two rivers were studied. Diagrams of coincidence risk of floods with different combinations of frequencies of the two rivers were provided. The results indicate that the flood time series in both rivers had changed; the coincidence risk of the flood peak occurrence dates of the two rivers peaked on July 31 and August 31, with values of 3. 36×10-4 and 1. 15×10-4, respectively; and the peak coincidence risks of flood peaks with difference frequencies were obtained in two periods, from July 26 to August 2 and from August 31 to September 5.

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李子远,冯平,苑希民.黄河宁夏段干支流非一致性洪峰遭遇风险分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2016,36(6):51-57.(LI Ziyuan, FENG Ping, YUAN Ximin. Coincidence risk analysis for non-stationary flood peak of Yellow River and its tributaries in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2016,36(6):51-57.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2015-10-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-11-09
  • 出版日期: 2016-11-05