基于不同分布曲线的常州市暴雨组合概率
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P333.2

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Probability of rainstorm combinations in Changzhou City based on different distribution curves
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    摘要:

    基于常州雨量站1951—2015年的年最大1 d、3 d降水量资料,利用Copula联结函数构建联合分布函数,推算相应的同现重现期和组合风险率,并以此为基础,评价常州市2015年“6·26”暴雨可能的重现期和风险率。结果表明:某一设计标准下的年最大1 d、3 d降水遭遇时的同现重现期大于年最大1 d或3 d降水单变量对应的重现期;同一设计频率的暴雨遭遇的风险率较高,且随着重现期增大而减小;“6·26”暴雨的同现重现期为218 a,同现风险率为17.4%,此次暴雨具有特殊性和罕见性,常州市未来的防洪形势将更为严峻。

    Abstract:

    Based on annual maximum 1-day and 3-day rainfall data from the Changzhou precipitation station from 1951 to 2015, a joint distribution function was constructed using the Copula function, and the corresponding co-occurrence return period and risk of rainstorm combination were calculated. Then, the function was used to evaluate the probable return period and risk of a rainstorm in Changzhou City on June 26, 2015. The results show that the co-occurrence return period when the annual maximum 1-day and 3-day rainfall according to a certain design standard encounter is larger than the respective return periods of annual maximum 1-day and 3-day rainfall. The risk when two rainstorms with the same design frequency encounter is higher, and will decrease with the increase of the corresponding return period. The co-occurrence return period of the rainstorm in Changzhou on June 26 is 218 years, when the co-occurrence risk is only 17.4%, indicating that this rainstorm is special and rare. Flood control in Changzhou City still faces severe issues in the future.

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胡尊乐,张悦,李丹,等.基于不同分布曲线的常州市暴雨组合概率[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(2):68-72.(HU Zunle, ZHANG Yue, LI Dan, et al. Probability of rainstorm combinations in Changzhou City based on different distribution curves[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(2):68-72.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2016-01-31
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-03-03
  • 出版日期: 2017-03-10