基于偏最小二乘通径分析方法的科技创新对用水效率边际效应的测度与分析
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F062.2

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安徽省2016年科技计划软科学项目(1607a0202061)


Measurements and analysis of marginal effect of water use efficiency by scientific and technological innovation based on PLS-PATH method
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    摘要:

    以安徽省为例,构建了科技创新与用水效率综合评价体系,运用熵值赋权法,对其指数进行了测算;借助SPSS19.0软件,采用典型相关分析、偏最小二乘回归分析方法,测算了科技创新对用水效率边际贡献;运用通径分析方法,考察了科技创新对用水效率的直接与间接效应,结果表明:安徽省科技创新指数由2005年的0.0129跃升至2014年的0.9742,而用水效率指数由2005年的0.4616攀升至2014年的0.8558,两者呈同向演化规律;科技创新对用水效率边际总弹性系数为0.097 99,其中,直接弹性系数为0.065253,间接弹性系数为0.032 37;经济增长、规制政策、产业结构的间接弹性系数分别为0.02583、0.00754、0.00027。基于研究结果,提出了有利于提高用水效率的政策建议。

    Abstract:

    Based on the entropy weighting method, a comprehensive assessment system for the relationship between scientific and technological innovation and water use efficiency was constructed. The indexes of innovation and water use efficiency were calculated for Anhui Province as an example. By use of SPSS19. 0, the marginal contribution of scientific and technological innovation to water use efficiency were calculated based on the canonical correlation analysis and partial least-squares regression analysis method. The path analysis method was adopted to investigate the direct and indirect effects of scientific and technological innovation on water use efficiency. The results show that the scientific and technological innovation index of Anhui Province jumped from 0.0129 in 2005 to 0.9742 in 2014, while the water use efficiency index rose from 0. 4616 in 2005 to 0.8558 in 2014, indicating a synthetic evolution. The total elasticity coefficient of scientific and technological innovation to the marginal effect of water use efficiency is 0.09799, among which, the direct elasticity coefficient is 0.065253 and the indirect elasticity coefficient is 0.032737. The indirect elasticity coefficients of economic growth, regulation policy and industrial structure are 0.02583, 0.00754 and 0.00027 respectively. Based on the research results, the policy suggestions are proposed to improve water use efficiency.

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张乐勤,陈素平.基于偏最小二乘通径分析方法的科技创新对用水效率边际效应的测度与分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2018,38(1):55-62.(ZHANG Leqin, CHEN Suping. Measurements and analysis of marginal effect of water use efficiency by scientific and technological innovation based on PLS-PATH method[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2018,38(1):55-62.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2017-02-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-03-01
  • 出版日期: 2018-01-10