To discuss the real-time risk assessment methods for earth and rockfill dams, the point estimation method is adopted for the real-time dam-break probability analysis. The dam-break losses were analyzed based on BREACH and HEC-RAS. According to previous research, new risk evaluation criteria and corresponding risk early warning standards are proposed. A new synthetical early warning model is established combined with the current risk early warning standards for emergency events. The verification example shows that the real-time analysis method of earth and rockfill dam break probability based on point estimation method can meet the requirements of both computational accuracy and efficiency. The synthetical early warning model can effectively improve the early warning capability while reduce the loss caused by excessive early warning to a certain extent. It can provide theoretical basis and technical support for the risk management of earth and rockfill dams.