大坝服役非概率可靠性分析方法
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TV642

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国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401601);国家自然科学基金(51739003,51479054)


Non-probabilistic reliability analysis methods of dam service performance
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    摘要:

    针对大坝服役可靠性影响因子具有非概率不确定特征的情况,建立了定量刻画大坝服役可靠性非概率影响因子的Info-gap模型,运用Info-gap决策理论和体积比非概率可靠性度量方法,提出了大坝服役非概率可靠性分析方法,拟定了大坝服役非概率目标可靠度。应用提出的非概率方法分析了某大坝结构服役可靠性,各功能模式可靠性分析结果说明了该方法的工程适用性,同时也验证了所拟定大坝服役非概率目标可靠度的合理性。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the non-probabilistic characteristics of the factors influencing dam service reliability, a non-probabilistic Info-gap model is established to quantifiably describe the non-probabilistic uncertainty of the influence factors. A non-probabilistic reliability analytical method of dam service performance is proposed based on two non-probabilistic reliability measures, Info-gap decision theory and the volume ratio. Non-probabilistic target reliability indexes of dam service performance are then preliminarily determined. The proposed non-probabilistic method is used to analyze the structural service reliability of a dam. The results of the reliability analysis in various function modes demontrste the engineering applicability of the method and the varified rationality of the determined non-probabilistic target reliability as well.

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顾冲时,张晶梅.大坝服役非概率可靠性分析方法[J].水利水电科技进展,2018,38(5):1-9.(GU Chongshi, ZHANG Jingmei. Non-probabilistic reliability analysis methods of dam service performance[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2018,38(5):1-9.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2018-05-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-09-27
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