我国水治理现状评估与展望
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中图分类号:

TV213.9

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(71603004,71573151);北方工业大学青年拔尖人才培育计划(XN018035)


Status evaluation and prospect of water governance in China
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    摘要:

    从资源维、社会维、经济维、生态维、环境维5个维度,明确了我国水治理的目标,并系统设计了我国水治理评估指标体系;采用层级等权赋权法和目标一致性法,综合评估我国水治理的现状,并预测2020—2050年水治理的变化趋势。结果表明,改革开放以来,我国水治理指数从低于0.235快速提升至接近0.70,其中2010—2015年是我国水治理的加速期,水治理指数提升了50%左右;预期2020年我国水治理指数将超过0.85,实现水资源消耗利用与经济发展协调;2030年我国水治理指数将接近0.95,实现水环境污染排放与经济发展协调,水安全保障能力显著提升,基本实现水治理目标;2050年我国水治理指数将达到最优值1,实现水资源利用、水污染排放、水灾害损失、水生态退化面积的“零增长”,全面实现人水和谐。

    Abstract:

    The goal of water governance is specified from five dimensions, including resources, economy, sociality, ecology and environment. The evaluation index system of the water governance in China is systematically designed. The current situation of water governance is comprehensively evaluated and the variation trend of China's water governance in 2020-2050 is forecasted using the hierarchical equal weight method and the target consistency method. The results show that the index of water governance has been increased quickly from below 0. 235 to near 0. 70 since the reform and opening-up. The acceleration period of water governance is from 2010 to 2015, in which the water governance index has increased about 50%. It is expected that the water governance index will exceed 0. 85 by 2020, and the harmonization between economic development and water resources utilization will be realized. The index of water governance will reach 0. 95 by 2030, and the harmonization between economic development and water pollution will be realized. The capacity of water safety support can be significantly improved and the water governance targets can be realized basically. The index of water governance will reach the optimum value of 1 by 2050, and the water resources utilization, water pollution discharge, water disaster loss and water ecology degradation area will be zero growth, fully achieving the harmony between human and water.

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吴丹,曹思奇,康雪,等.我国水治理现状评估与展望[J].水利水电科技进展,2019,39(1):7-14.(WU Dan, CHAO Siqi, KANG Xue, et al. Status evaluation and prospect of water governance in China[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2019,39(1):7-14.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-01-25