黑龙江省水-能源-粮食系统动力学模拟
作者:
中图分类号:

TV213

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404603)


System dynamics simulation of WEF nexus in Heilongjiang Province
  • 摘要
  • | |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    基于系统动力学理论,建立黑龙江省水-能源-粮食纽带关系仿真模型,对2010—2017年黑龙江省水资源的供需情况和能源、粮食的生产与消费进行模拟。通过设置和对比4种不同的发展方案,探究黑龙江省水-能源-粮食合理的配置方案。结果表明:黑龙江省的水资源安全形势较为严峻,在4种发展方案中,采取严格规划方案的正面效果最显著;强化发展方案下的能源消耗最明显,无论采取哪种发展方案,如果不对能源消费量加以控制,全省的能源安全可能无法保证;黑龙江省的粮食安全比较稳定,不易受外部条件的影响,保守节约方案下的粮食库存和粮食供需平衡比最大;仅采取一种发展方案可能无法实现水-能源-粮食系统的整体安全。

    Abstract:

    A simulation model of WEF nexus in Heilongjiang Province was established based on the theory of system dynamics, in which the supply and demand of water resources and the production and consumption of energy and food from 2010 to 2017 were simulated. Four different development patterns were set for exploring the rational allocation pattern of water-energy-food in Heilongjiang Province. The results show that the situation of water security in Heilongjiang Province is severe. Adoption of the strictest planning pattern will lead to a most significant positive effect among the four development patterns. The consumption of energy under the enhanced development pattern is the most obvious, and the energy security of the whole province could not be guaranteed no matter which development pattern is adopted if the energy consumption is not under control. The food security of Heilongjiang Province is relatively stable and not easily affected by external conditions. The ratio of food inventory and food supply-demand balance will get maximum under the conservative saving pattern. The overall security of the water-energy-food system may not be achieved by a single development pattern.

    参考文献
    [1] 孙才志,阎晓东.中国水资源-能源-粮食耦合系统安全评价及空间关联分析[J].水资源保护,2018,34(5):1-8.(SUN Caizhi,YAN Xiaodong.Security evaluation and spatial correlation pattern analysis of water resources-energy-food nexus coupling system in China[J].Water Resources Protection,2018,34(5):1-8.(in Chinese))
    [2] World Economic Forum. Global risks report 2011 [R]. 6th edition.Cologne:World Economic Forum,2011.
    [3] HOFF H. Understanding the nexus[C]//Background paper for the Bonn 2011 conference: the water, energy and food security nexus. Stockholm:Stockholm Environment Institute,2011:16-18.
    [4] ADNAN H. The status of the water,food and energy nexus in Asia and the Pacific[R]. Thailand:United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pasific(UNESCAP),2013.
    [5] PITTOCK J,HUSSEY K,MCGLENNON S. Australian climate,energy and water policies: conflicts and synergies[J]. Australian Geographer,2013,44(1):3-22.
    [6] DOMINGUEZ P. Thinking about water differently:managing the water-food-energy nexus[R]. Manila:Asian Development Bank(ADB),2013.
    [7] FAO. The water-energy-food nexus:a new approach in support of food security and sustainable agriculture[EB/OL]. [2014-06-01] . http://www.fao.org/policy-support/resources/resources-details/en/c/421718.
    [8] GAIN A K,GIUPPONI C,BENSON D. The water-energy-food(WEF)security nexus:the policy perspective of Bangladesh[J]. Water International,2015,40(5/6):895-910.
    [9] LARCOM S,GEVELT T V. Regulating the water-energy-food nexus: Interdependencies,transaction costs and procedural justice[J]. Environmental Science & Policy,2017,72:55-64.
    [10] KURIAN M. The water-energy-food nexus:trade-offs,thresholds and transdisciplinary approaches to sustainable development[J]. Environmental Science & Policy,2017,68:97-106.
    [11] TANIGUCHI M,ENDO A,GURDAK J J,et al. Water-energy-food nexus in the Asia-Pacific region[J]. Journal of Hydrology:Regional Studies,2017,11:1-8.
    [12] SPIEGELBERG M,BALTAZAR D E,SARIGUMBA M P E,et al. Unfolding livelihood aspects of the water-energy-food nexus in the dampalit watershed,philippines[J]. Journal of Hydrology:Regional Studies,2017,11:53-68.
    [13] EBRAHIM N. Ripples from the water-energy-food nexus[J]. OECD Observer,2015,302:11.
    [14] 常远,夏朋,王建平. 水-能源-粮食纽带关系概述及对我国的启示[J]. 水利发展研究,2016,16(5):67-70.(CHANG Yuan,XIA Peng,WANG Jianping. An overview of water-energy-food nexus and its enlightenment to China[J]. Water Resources Development Research,2016,16(5):67-70.(in Chinese))
    [15] 李桂君,黄道涵,李玉龙. 水-能源-粮食关联关系:区域可持续发展研究的新视角[J]. 中央财经大学学报,2016(12):76-90.(LI Guijun,HUANG Daohan,LI Yulong. Water-energy-food nexus(WEF-Nexus):new perspective on regional sustainable development[J]. Journal of University of Finance & Economics,2016(12):76-90.(in Chinese))
    [16] 郑人瑞,唐金荣,金玺. 水-能源-粮食纽带关系:地球科学的认知与解决方案[J]. 中国矿业,2018,27(10):36-41.(ZHENG Renrui,TANG Jinrong,JIN Xi. Water-energy-food nexus:cognition and solution of earth science[J]. China Mining Magazine,2018,27(10):36-41.(in Chinese))
    [17] 李良,毕军,周元春,等. 基于粮食-能源-水关联关系的风险管控研究进展[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(7):85-92.(LI Liang,BI Jun,ZHOU Yuanchun,et al. Research progress of regional environmental risk management:from the perspectives of food-energy-water nexus[J]. China Population,Resources and Environment,2018,28(7):85-92.(in Chinese))
    [18] 邓鹏,陈菁,陈丹,等. 区域水-能源-粮食耦合协调演化特征研究:以江苏省为例[J]. 水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(6):232-238.(DENG Peng,CHEN Jing,CHEN Dan,et al. The evolutionary characteristics analysis of the coupling and coordination among water,energy and food: take Jiangsu Province as an example[J]. Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering,2017,28(6):232-238.(in Chinese))
    [19] 李东林,刘建华,郝林钢,等. “一带一路”非洲区水-粮-能安全分析[J]. 水资源保护,2018,34(4):22-28.(LI Donglin,LIU Jianhua,HAO Lingang,et al. Analysis of water-food-energy safety in Africa area of “Belt and Road”[J]. Water Resources Protection,2018,34(4):22-28.(in Chinese))
    [20] FORRESTER J W. Industrial dynamics[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society,1997,48(10):1037-1041.
    [21] 荣绍辉. 基于SD仿真模型的区域水资源承载力研究:以应城市为案例[D]. 武汉:华中科技大学,2009.
    [22] 邓丽,李政霖,华坚.基于系统动力学的重大水利工程项目社会经济生态交织影响研究[J].水利经济,2017,35(4):16-23.(DENG Li,LI Zhenglin,HUA Jian.Interweaved impact of large hydraulic projects on society, economy and ecology using system dynamics[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2017,35(4):16-23.(in Chinese))
    [23] 华坚,李晶晶.基于系统动力学的重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估有效性分析[J].水利经济,2017,35(2):11-15.(HUA Jian,LI Jingjing.Effectiveness analysis of risk assessment of social stability of large-scale water conservancy projects based on system dynamics[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2017,35(2):11-15.(in Chinese))
    [24] 李旭. 社会系统动力学:政策研究的原理、方法和应用[M]. 上海:复旦大学出版社,2009.
    [25] 李桂君,李玉龙,贾晓菁,等. 北京市水-能源-粮食可持续发展系统动力学模型构建与仿真[J]. 管理评论,2016,28(10):11-26.(LI Guijun,LI Yulong,JIA Xiaojing,et al. Establishment and simulation study of system dynamic model on sustainable development of water-energy-food nexus in Beijing[J]. Management Review,2016,28(10):11-26.(in Chinese))
    [26] ENDO A,TSURITA I,BURNETT K,et al. A review of the current state of research on the water,energy,and food nexus[J]. Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies,2017,11:20-30.
    [27] 靳春香,王秀茹,王希,等. 黑龙江省近50年降水变化趋势及空间分布特征[J]. 中国水土保持科学,2015,13(1):76-83.(JIN Chunxiang,WANG Xiuru,WANG Xi,et al. Variation trend and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in recent 50 years in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,13(1):76-83.(in Chinese))
    [28] 蔡宇新,崔玉婕. 黑龙江省能源产业的现状和存在问题的调查分析[J]. 商业经济,2017(6):22-23.(CAI Yuxin,CUI Yujie. Investigation and analysis of the current situation and existing problems of energy industry in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Business Economy,2017(6):22-23.(in Chinese))
    [29] 田文凯,侯保灯,陈海涛,等. 基于粮食安全的黑龙江省水资源承载力评价[J]. 中国农村水利水电,2018(5):119-122.(TIAN Wenkai,HOU Baodeng,CHEN Haitao,et al. The evaluation of water resources carrying in Heilongjiang Province based on food security[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower,2018(5):119-122.(in Chinese))
    [30] 翟绪军,姜法竹,贾永全. 基于农业现代化与粮食安全的黑龙江垦区持续发展建议[J]. 黑龙江八一农垦大学学报,2015,27(3):101-105.(ZHAI Xujun,JIANG Fazhu,JIA Yongquan. Suggestions for sustainable development based on agricultural modernization and food security in Heilongjiang Reclamation Area[J]. Journal of Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University,2015,27(3):101-105.(in Chinese))
    [31] 王其藩. 高级系统动力学[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社,1995.
    网友评论
    网友评论
    分享到微博
    发 布
引用本文

王雨,王会肖,杨雅雪,等.黑龙江省水-能源-粮食系统动力学模拟[J].水利水电科技进展,2020,40(4):8-15.(WANG Yu, WANG Huixiao, YANG Yaxue, et al. System dynamics simulation of WEF nexus in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2020,40(4):8-15.(in Chinese))

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:1669
  • 下载次数: 2241
  • HTML阅读次数: 0
  • 引用次数: 0
历史
  • 在线发布日期: 2020-08-05