基于EEMD-RVM的土石坝渗流量时间序列预测模型
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TV641;TV223.4

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国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508603);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划(SJKY19_0488);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2019B70514)


Time series prediction model of seepage flow of an earth-rock dam based on EEMD-RVM
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    摘要:

    为避免常规时间序列模型因不考虑非线性环境量而出现过拟合及预测精度不高的现象,建立了基于EEMD-RVM的土石坝渗流量时间序列预测模型。该模型采用集成经验模态分解法(EEMD)对量水堰渗流量监测值进行分解,生成多组平稳本征模态函数(IMF)及剩余分量R,然后采用相关向量机(RVM)对若干组IMF序列和R进行训练拟合及预测,最后将IMF序列和R进行等权求和得到渗流量预测值;讨论了该模型训练集的样本数及时长、预测集个数的选择和突跳点的处理等相关情况。工程算例验证结果表明,EEMD-RVM模型拟合预测精度高,且预测精度明显高于RVM模型以及GA-BP模型,验证了该模型的可行性。

    Abstract:

    In order to avoid the phenomenon of over fitting and low prediction accuracy of conventional time series model which does not consider the non-linear and random environmental quantity, an integrated empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method was used to decompose the actual monitoring seepage flow of the water measuring weir. Multiple groups of stable eigenmode functions(IMF)and residual quantities(R)were generated, and then the IMF series and R were fitted and predicted by the correlation vector machine(RVM). Finally, the IMF series and R were added by equal weight to get the predicted value of the seepage flow. The number and length of the training set, the choice of the prediction set number and the treatment of the jump points were also discussed. The results of an engineering application case show that the EEMD-RVM model has high prediction accuracy, and is significantly higher than RVM model and GA-BP model, which verifies the feasibility of the model.

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刘永涛,郑东健,孙雪莲,等.基于EEMD-RVM的土石坝渗流量时间序列预测模型[J].水利水电科技进展,2021,41(3):89-94.(LIU Yongtao, ZHENG Dongjian, SUN Xuelian, et al. Time series prediction model of seepage flow of an earth-rock dam based on EEMD-RVM[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2021,41(3):89-94.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-06-23
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