Based on the theory and quantitative methods of socio-economic and ecological water use balance, combined with the SWAT model, a research approach for the balance between socio-economic and ecological water use in the Qinhe River Basin was proposed. The socio-economic and ecological water use balance status in the Qinhe River Basin from 2005 to 2020 was analyzed, and the equilibrium points of socio-economic and ecological water use for planning level years (2025, 2030, and 2035) under future climate change scenarios were predicted. The results show that the imbalance indices of socio-economic and ecological water use in the Qinhe River Basin from 2005 to 2020 were all negative, indicating a persistent ecological water deficit in the basin. The imbalance index for the current year exhibits a fluctuating upward trend, and the socio-economic and ecological water use balance status is gradually improved. Under the rainfall frequencies of 95%, 75% and 50%, the predicted balance points of socio-economic and ecological water use in 2025 are 0.76, 0.66 and 0.63, respectively, those in 2030 are 0.67, 0.63 and 0.52, respectively, and those in 2035 are 0.54, 0.43, and 0.41, respectively.