Ensemble forecasting of seasonal streamflow in the Jiaojiang River Basin based on multi-model fusion
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(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

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TV213.4

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    Abstract:

    In order to enhance the predictability of seasonal streamflow, numerical weather prediction was coupled with the Xin’anjiang model, the distributed hydrological soil vegetation model (DHSVM), and the long short-term memory model (LSTM) for ensemble forecasting of monthly streamflow in the Jiaojiang River Basin from 2012 to 2020. Three different methods, namely, equal weighting, unequal weighting, and BP neural network-based weighting, were employed to fuse the outputs from the three models. Comparison was made between the fused forecasts and the optimal forecasts of single models. The results indicate that the BP neural network fusion method significantly enhances the forecasting accuracy, demonstrating superior performance over other methods. Notably, this method substantially extends the effective forecast lead time across all four distinct seasons (spring, summer, autumn, and winter), thereby providing more reliable hydrological predictions for water resources management and utilization in the basin.

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周鹏,许月萍,周欣磊,等.基于多模型融合的椒江流域季节性径流集合预报[J].水利水电科技进展,2025,45(3):62-69.(ZHOU Peng, XU Yueping, ZHOU Xinlei, et al. Ensemble forecasting of seasonal streamflow in the Jiaojiang River Basin based on multi-model fusion[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2025,45(3):62-69.(in Chinese))

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  • Received:May 08,2024
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: May 20,2025
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