Based on the trend analysis method and the change-point testing method, trends of the hydro-meteorological elements for the Daling River Basin were detected. The annual runoff time series was divided into a “natural period” and an “impacted period” based on the human activities characteristics and change point analysis results for the river basin. A hydrological model was established based on hydrological, meteorological, and land use data from the upper Daling River Basin. Through the elastic coefficient method and hydrological simulation method, the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the study area were analyzed quantitatively. The results show that the precipitation of the study area has been increasing slightly during 1956—2006, and the potential evapotranspiration and runoff show a significant decreasing trend, mainly due to human activities.