Probability of rainstorm combinations in Changzhou City based on different distribution curves
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    Abstract:

    Based on annual maximum 1-day and 3-day rainfall data from the Changzhou precipitation station from 1951 to 2015, a joint distribution function was constructed using the Copula function, and the corresponding co-occurrence return period and risk of rainstorm combination were calculated. Then, the function was used to evaluate the probable return period and risk of a rainstorm in Changzhou City on June 26, 2015. The results show that the co-occurrence return period when the annual maximum 1-day and 3-day rainfall according to a certain design standard encounter is larger than the respective return periods of annual maximum 1-day and 3-day rainfall. The risk when two rainstorms with the same design frequency encounter is higher, and will decrease with the increase of the corresponding return period. The co-occurrence return period of the rainstorm in Changzhou on June 26 is 218 years, when the co-occurrence risk is only 17.4%, indicating that this rainstorm is special and rare. Flood control in Changzhou City still faces severe issues in the future.

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胡尊乐,张悦,李丹,等.基于不同分布曲线的常州市暴雨组合概率[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(2):68-72.(HU Zunle, ZHANG Yue, LI Dan, et al. Probability of rainstorm combinations in Changzhou City based on different distribution curves[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(2):68-72.(in Chinese))

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History
  • Received:January 31,2016
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: March 03,2017
  • Published: March 10,2017
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