中国省际水风险评价及空间关联格局研究
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Water risk assessment and spatial correlation patterns research in provincial scale in China
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    摘要:

    参考世界自然基金会(WWF)与德国投资与开发有限公司(DEG)提出的水风险评估方法,从短缺风险、污染风险、灾害风险、生态风险以及监管与声誉风险5个方面构建水风险评价体系,以中国31个省(市)为研究对象,采用加权综合评价方法对2000—2013年各省(市)的水风险进行评估,并利用Fuzzy ISODATA聚类模型对水风险评价结果进行分类。在此基础上运用空间自相关分析方法,对中国水风险指数的总体空间区域差异及时间演变趋势进行研究。结果表明:(1)中国水风险总体处于中低水平,且风险等级呈现出由高向低发展的良好状态。(2)各省(市)风险大小差异明显,南方地区水风险普遍低于北方地区。(3)风险子系统中短缺风险与污染风险对各省(市)水风险影响较大,但影响程度随时间减弱;生态风险小幅上升;灾害风险受自然条件影响表现出随机性特征。(4)水风险空间上存在显著的集聚现象,但空间集聚特征减弱,省际水风险关联度减小。

    Abstract:

    Referring to the water risk assessment method presented by World Wide Fund for Nature(WWF)and German Investment and Development Limited Liability Company(DEG), the water risk assessment system was constructed, considering five aspects of water shortage risk, pollution risk, disaster risk, ecology risk, regulation risk and reputation risk. Taking 31 provinces and cities as the research objects, the water risk in each region during 2000-2013 was evaluated using weighted comprehensive assessment method. The results of water risk assessment were classified according to Fuzzy ISODATA classification model. Based on that, the overall spatial differences and temporal evolution trends of water risk indexes in China were studied using spatial self-correlation analysis method. The results show that: 1. The overall water risk in China is at low-medium level and is developing from high to low. 2. The differences among regions are obvious. In general, water risks in southern regions are lower than those in northern China. 3. The shortage and pollution risk have a strong impact on the comprehensive water risk in each region, while the impact degree is getting weaker over time and ecological risk is rising slightly. Disaster risks affected by natural conditions show randomness characteristic. 4. Water risks show a significant agglomeration in space dimension, while its features are weakening. The correlation of water risks among regions is decreasing.

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孙才志,杨宇,陈相涛,等.中国省际水风险评价及空间关联格局研究[J].水资源保护,2015,31(6):18-26.(SUN Caizhi, YANG Yu, CHEN Xiangtao, et al. Water risk assessment and spatial correlation patterns research in provincial scale in China[J]. Water Resources Protection,2015,31(6):18-26.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-11-12
  • 出版日期: 2015-11-20