基于系统动力学的江苏水资源系统安全仿真与控制
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X24

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江苏省社会科学基金(10GLC013);国家自然科学基金(51279058)


Simulation and control of water resources system security in Jiangsu Province based on system dynamics
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    摘要:

    在对区域水资源系统分析的基础上,构建了江苏水资源安全系统动力学模型,并进行了模拟仿真。结果表明2018年后江苏省将出现水资源供需安全问题。通过定量分析找出影响江苏省水资源安全系统的4大动力因素,并设计6种不同的解决方案,通过方案对比分析得出水资源可持续利用的最优方案是综合型方案。最后,对江苏省水资源可持续发展提出了相应的政策建议。

    Abstract:

    Based on quantitative analysis of a regional water resources system, a dynamic model was constructed for the water resources security system in Jiangsu Province. A simulation case study was conducted. The results show that Jiangsu Province will have water resources supply and demand security problems after the year 2018. Through quantitative analysis, four dynamic factors that influence the water resources security system of Jiangsu Province were determined, and six kinds of solutions were designed. Through comparison of these solutions, the comprehensive solution was determined to be the optimum solution for the sustainable utilization of water resources. In addition, corresponding recommendations for sustainable development of the water resources in Jiangsu Province are proposed.

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杜梦娇,田贵良,吴茜,等.基于系统动力学的江苏水资源系统安全仿真与控制[J].水资源保护,2016,32(4):67-73.(DU Mengjiao, TIAN Guiliang, WU Xi, et al. Simulation and control of water resources system security in Jiangsu Province based on system dynamics[J]. Water Resources Protection,2016,32(4):67-73.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2015-07-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-07-13
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