基于R-Vine Copula函数的极端降水联合分布模型及风险识别
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作者单位:

(1.西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西 杨凌 712100;2.西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室, 陕西 杨凌 712100;3.西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西 杨凌 712100)

作者简介:

曾文颖(1998—),女,博士研究生,主要从事水文模拟研究。E-mail:zwyxn016@163.com 通信作者:宋松柏(1965—),男,教授,博士,主要从事流域水文模拟与预报研究。E-mail:ssb6533@nwsuaf.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

TV125

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(52079110)


Joint probability distribution and risk identification of extreme precipitation based on R-Vine Copula function
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Affiliation:

(1.College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China;2.Key Laboratory for Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area of Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China;3.College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China)

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    摘要:

    在边缘分布函数优选的基础上,采用条件Copula函数和Vine图结构,构建基于R-Vine Copula函数的极端降水联合分布模型,以河南省4个气象站的实测数据进行模型验证和对比分析,并对极端降水指标进行了风险识别。结果表明:构建的模型可以描述变量之间的不同尾部特征,保持原序列Kendall和Spearman相关系数等统计特征,整体精度优于基于C-Vine Copula函数构建的极端降水联合分布模型;河南省年降水量与降水强度、最大1d降水量与最大5d降水量的概率分布密切相关,各指标对联合概率密度的影响程度呈现出空间异质性。

    Abstract:

    On the basis of optimization of edge distribution function, a joint probability distribution model of extreme precipitation based on R-Vine Copula function is constructed with conditional Copula function and Vine graph structure. The model is verified and compared with the measured data of four meteorological stations in Henan Province. The risk of extreme precipitation is identified with extreme precipitation factors. The results show that this model is able to discriminate the tail characteristics among variables, with statistical characteristics, such as Kendall and Spearman correlation coefficients of the original sequences, maintained. The overall accuracy of this joint probability distribution model of extreme precipitation is better than that based on C-Vine Copula function. The probability distributions of annual precipitation and precipitation intensity, maximum 1d precipitation and maximum 5d precipitation in Henan Province are closely related. The influence of each index on the joint probability density shows spatial heterogeneity.

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曾文颖,徐明庆,宋松柏,等.基于R-Vine Copula函数的极端降水联合分布模型及风险识别[J].水资源保护,2022,38(6):96-103.(ZENG Wenying, XU Mingqing, SONG Songbai, et al. Joint probability distribution and risk identification of extreme precipitation based on R-Vine Copula function[J]. Water Resources Protection,2022,38(6):96-103.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2021-09-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-11-19
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