表征生态状况的综合干旱指数构建及干旱风险分析
作者:
作者单位:

(1. 西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西 杨凌 712100;2. 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西 杨凌 712100)

作者简介:

粟晓玲(1968—),女,教授,博士,主要从事水文模拟及水资源优化研究。 E-mail:xiaolingsu@nwafu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

TV11; P338+.6

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(52079111,51879222)


Construction of comprehensive drought index representing ecological condition and drought risk analysis
Author:
Affiliation:

(1. Key Laboratory for Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area of Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China;2.College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China)

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    摘要:

    联合标准化降水指数、标准化土壤湿度指数、标准化地下水指数和标准化生态缺水指数,基于熵权法和相关系数赋权法分别构建了西北地区综合干旱指数CDI_E和CDI_C,分析了CDI_E、CDI_C与标准化叶绿素荧光指数(SSIF)、自适应帕尔默干旱指数(scPDSI)间的相关性,评估了CDI_E、CDI_C对植被状况的表征以及综合干旱的监测能力,并选取典型干旱事件进行验证。利用游程理论分析了1986—2015年西北地区的综合干旱特征及暴露度、脆弱性、恢复力3个风险因子,采用等权法计算综合干旱风险,依据10a滑动窗口分析干旱风险的变化趋势。结果表明:CDI_C考虑了干旱与植被的响应关系,且与scPDSI的相关性较强,能较好地反映西北地区的综合干旱情况;CDI_C可以同时监测到气象、农业、地下水和生态干旱,且反映的干旱与实际情况一致;CDI_C显示研究时段内西北大部分地区呈变湿趋势;综合干旱在新疆、青海等干旱半干旱区的发生频率较高且干旱风险较大,各区干旱风险呈先增后减的趋势。

    Abstract:

    Combined with the standardized precipitation index, the standardized soil moisture index, the standardized groundwater index and the standardized ecological water shortage index, the comprehensive drought index CDI_E and CDI_C of Northwest China was constructed based on the entropy weight method and the correlation coefficient weight method. The correlation between CDI_E, CDI_C, standardized chlorophyll fluorescence index and self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) was analyzed. Characterize the vegetation status and monitor the comprehensive drought, and select typical drought events for verification. The ability of CDI_ E、CDI_ C characterizing the vegetation status and monitoring the comprehensive drought was evaluated, and typical drought events were selected for verification. The comprehensive drought characteristics and three risk factors of exposure, vulnerability and resilience in Northwest China from 1986 to 2015 were analyzed by using the run theory. The comprehensive drought risk was calculated by the equal weight method, and the change trend of drought risk was analyzed according to the 10-year sliding window. The results show that CDI_C considers the response relationship between drought and vegetation, and has strong correlation with scPDSI, which can better reflect the comprehensive drought situation in Northwest China. CDI_C can monitor weather, agriculture, groundwater and ecological droughts at the same time, and the drought reflected is consistent with the actual situation. CDI_C shows that most areas in the Northwest China are getting wet during the study period. The occurrence frequency of comprehensive drought and the drought risk in arid and semi-arid regions such as Xinjiang and Qinghai is relatively high. The drought risk in each region is increasing first and then decreasing.

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粟晓玲,梁晓萱,吴海江,等.表征生态状况的综合干旱指数构建及干旱风险分析[J].水资源保护,2023,39(2):50-58, 100.(SU Xiaoling, LIANG Xiaoxuan, WU Haijiang, et al. Construction of comprehensive drought index representing ecological condition and drought risk analysis[J]. Water Resources Protection,2023,39(2):50-58, 100.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2022-04-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-04
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