中长期径流预报研究进展与展望
作者:
作者单位:

(1.武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430072;2.南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;3.长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏 南京 210098;4.水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏 南京 210029)

作者简介:

孙周亮(1993—),男,博士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:zlsun19@whu.edu.cn 通信作者:张建云(1957—),男,中国工程院院士,教授级高级工程师,博士,主要从事气候变化与水文水资源研究。E-mail:jyzhang@nhri.cn

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中图分类号:

TV213

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508104); 国家自然科学基金(52079079,91847301, 92047203); 江苏省自然科学基金(BK20191129)


Research progress and prospect of mid-long term runoff prediction
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Affiliation:

(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210098, China;3.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Nanjing 210098, China;4.Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China)

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    摘要:

    概述了中长期径流变化的主要影响因素,从发展历程和研究方法两个角度总结了中长期径流预报方法。从研究技术、径流成因、数据驱动模型、预报不确定性4个方面综述了中长期径流预报的研究进展,分析了在径流关键驱动因子及其驱动机制、数据驱动方法的物理可解释性、预报结果的不确定性认识等方面研究的不足,指出未来应注重对中长期径流物理成因、预报方法适用性和可靠性、中长期径流演变相关研究成果的应用等方面的研究。

    Abstract:

    A summary was made on the the driving factors of mid-long term runoff evolution as well as the classification of mid-long term runoff prediction methods and models from angles of development processes and research methods. The research progress of mid-long term runoff prediction was reviewed from four aspects, including research techniques, physical causes, data-driven models, and prediction uncertainty, and the deficiencies in the research of the key driving factors of runoff and their driving mechanisms, the physical interpretability of data-driven methods, and the uncertainty of prediciton were analyzed. It is pointed out that future research should focus on physical causes of mid-long term runoff evolution, the applicability and reliability of prediction methods, and application of relevant research results of mid-long term runoff evolution.

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引用本文

孙周亮,刘艳丽,张建云,等.中长期径流预报研究进展与展望[J].水资源保护,2023,39(2):136-144, 223.(SUN Zhouliang, LIU Yanli, ZHANG Jianyun, et al. Research progress and prospect of mid-long term runoff prediction[J]. Water Resources Protection,2023,39(2):136-144, 223.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2022-01-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-04
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