湖北省水资源压力与经济发展脱钩的时空演化
作者:
作者单位:

(1.三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北 宜昌 443002;2.三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北 宜昌 443002)

作者简介:

陈述(1986—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水资源管理研究。E-mail:chenshu@ctgu.edu.cn 通信作者:颜克胜(1988—),男,讲师,博士,主要从事水资源管理研究。E-mail:yankesheng@ctgu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

F127;TV213.4

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(52079073);湖北省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目(21Y042)


Spatio temporal evolution of decoupling between water resources stress and economic development in Hubei Province
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China;2.College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China)

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    摘要:

    以水资源压力指数为指标,采用Mann-Kendall检验分析2011—2020年湖北省水资源压力的变化趋势及突变点,并利用Tapio脱钩模型揭示水资源压力与经济发展脱钩关系的时空演化规律。结果表明:除2016年与2020年外,湖北省水资源压力整体偏大,空间上呈现鄂西最大、鄂东居中、鄂中最小的态势;湖北省水资源压力整体呈下降趋势,突变点在2012年与2019年前后;全省水资源压力与经济发展之间的脱钩关系因水文特征波动,在时序上从2012—2016年的强脱钩发展到2017—2019年的扩张负脱钩,再到2020年的衰退脱钩;因自然气候及发展战略差异,在空间上各区域的平均脱钩率从2012—2016年鄂西最低、鄂东居中、鄂中最高,发展到2017—2019年鄂东最低、鄂中居中、鄂西最高,2020年趋于平衡。为此,湖北省未来应重视制定基于水文波动的水资源压力变化应对预案,并对鄂东和鄂中地区实施产业结构调整。

    Abstract:

    With the water resources stress index taken as an indicator, Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the trend and abrupt change points of water resources stress in Hubei Province from 2011 to 2020, and the Tapio decoupling model was applied to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the decoupling relationship between water resources stress and economic development. The results show that except in 2016 and 2020,the overall water resources stress in Hubei Province was relatively large, showing a spatial trend of maximum in western Hubei, middle in eastern Hubei, and minimum in central Hubei; the overall water resources stress in Hubei Province showed a downward trend, and abrupt change points occurred around 2012 and 2019;the decoupling relationship between water resources stress and economic development in Hubei Province experienced from strong decoupling during 2012-2016 to expansionary negative decoupling during 2017-2019,and then to recessionary decoupling in 2020 in time sequence due to fluctuations in hydrological characteristics; because of the differences in natural climate and development strategies, spatially, the average decoupling rate in Hubei Province experienced a gradual transition from the lowest in western Hubei, the middle in eastern Hubei, and the highest in central Hubei during 2012-2016, to the lowest in eastern Hubei, the middle in central Hubei, and the highest in western Hubei during 2017-2019, and finally tended to be balanced in 2020.Therefore, Hubei Province should pay more attention to formulating water stress response plans based on hydrological fluctuations, and implement industrial structure adjustment in eastern Hubei and central Hubei in the future.

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陈述,汪钟铃,颜克胜,等.湖北省水资源压力与经济发展脱钩的时空演化[J].水资源保护,2023,39(3):134-141.(CHEN Shu, WANG Zhongling, YAN Kesheng, et al. Spatio temporal evolution of decoupling between water resources stress and economic development in Hubei Province[J]. Water Resources Protection,2023,39(3):134-141.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2022-05-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-30
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