2002—2021年中国陆地水储量及其组分变化分析
作者:
作者单位:

(1.西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西 杨凌 712100;2.西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西 杨凌 712100;3.华北水利水电大学水利学院,河南 郑州 450046)

作者简介:

褚江东(1997—),男,博士研究生,主要从事水文模拟研究。E-mail:cycjd1997@nwafu.edu.cn 通信作者:粟晓玲(1968—),女,教授,博士,主要从事水文模拟研究。E-mail:xiaolingsu@nwafu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

TV211.1; P223

基金项目:

水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022018);国家自然科学基金(52079111,51879222)


Analysis of terrestrial water storage and its component changes in China from 2002 to 2021
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Affiliation:

(1.Key Laboratory for Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Area of Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China;2.College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China;3.School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China)

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    摘要:

    为深入探讨中国2002年4月至2021年3月陆地水储量(TWS)及其组分的变化情况,采用基于分解-集成思想的VMD-LSTM组合预测模型插补GRACE重力卫星和其后续卫星GRACE-FO间断期的数据,利用Theil-Sen斜率分析法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法研究中国九大流域TWS及其组分的时空演变规律,并基于随机森林法初步分析TWS各组分对TWS的相对贡献率。结果表明:VMD-LSTM模型能够有效插补中国GRACE序列间断期数据,绝大多数区域的纳什效率系数大于 0.6、相关系数大于0.9、均方根误差小于2cm,插补精度显著提高;TWS变化和地下水储量变化趋势具有较好的空间一致性,除东南诸河片、珠江流域片和长江流域片外,其他流域TWS均呈下降趋势,这主要由地下水亏损导致;西部干旱半干旱地区和华北地区TWS主要受地下水储量的影响,相较于干旱半干旱地区,湿润半湿润地区的TWS受冠层水储量和土壤水储量的影响较大。

    Abstract:

    In order to explore the changes of terrestrial water storage (TWS) and its components in China from April 2002 to March 2021, the interval data between GRACE gravity satellite and its follow-on satellite GRACE-FO were interpolated by using a hybrid VMD-LSTM model based on the decomposition-integration idea. The Theil-Sen slope analysis method and the Mann-Kendall trend test method were used to study the spatiotemporal evolution of TWS and its components in nine major river basins in China. The random forest method was used for analyzing the relative contribution rate of each component to TWS. The results showed that the VMD-LSTM model can effectively interpolate the GRACE sequence in China, with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient greater than 0.6, correlation coefficient greater than 0.9, and root mean square error less than 2cm in most regions, which significantly improves the interpolation accuracy. There is a spatial consistency between the change trends of TWS and groundwater storage. Except for the Southeast River Basin, Pearl River Basin, and Yangtze River Basin, TWS in other basins shows a downward trend, which is mainly caused by groundwater deficit. TWS in western arid and semi-arid regions and North China is mainly affected by groundwater storage, and TWS is greatly affected by canopy water storage and soil water storage in humid and semi-humid regions, compared to arid and semi-arid regions.

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褚江东,粟晓玲,吴海江,等.2002—2021年中国陆地水储量及其组分变化分析[J].水资源保护,2023,39(3):170-178.(CHU Jiangdong, SU Xiaoling, WU Haijiang, et al. Analysis of terrestrial water storage and its component changes in China from 2002 to 2021[J]. Water Resources Protection,2023,39(3):170-178.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2022-03-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-30
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